The best way to earn money fast while playing HSX is openers. Hands down, no question. That having been said, it is also probably the best way to lose money also. Some traders contend that it is often not worth the risk and sit out the openers completely, however, I for one think that they are always worthwhile and with the help of a few tips and tricks you can greatly reduce the risk and bolster your chances of making H$.

I will state right now that I by no means have a magic method to make you 100% right for all openers but its a matter of increasing your odds at a correct pick. Looking at the HSB&R Staff Picks as I type this I am up $20m for the year in openers, could have been better as I missed a few big ones but you get the idea. My YTD port which is played for 5 minutes on Friday and Sunday now stands at over $50m due solely to openers, adjust and post-adjust. I say this not to boast (there are many players way better than me at judging the openers) but to show how successful they can be. So here is a few tips and tricks i’ve collected and honed over the last two years:

1. Past opener data

This is a must for all players, and one of the best gauges of potential. It is often hard to pick relevant films to compare the new opener to but there are a few guides you should stick to: past films by the same actor and/or director, films of the same genre, plot, release date, and theatre count. Also, don’t fall into some of the common pitfalls of comparison, try to gauge if the success of past films for actors/directors can be attributed to them or if it was other factors. Point in case, if you are looking at a new film starring Jimmy Smits, it would be hardly worthwhile to compare the Star Wars films since he had a small part and the franchise itself has such a huge following. However, don’t fall into the trap of saying that “no films has ever opened past $20m in X genre so its overpriced” or “the top 10 never makes more than $100m on this weekend”. Records will be broken and looking at past numbers in a vacuum without considering any other factors will almost always lead to ruin H$-wise.

Here are a few great sources of numbers for your comparisons:

Box Office Mojo
Box Office Mojo’s Genre Page
The-Numbers
IMDb

2. Early screenings/theatre reports

Now that the halt time has changed to 1PM the theatre report’s effectiveness has been severely been reduced, but some films open the midnight before and early theatre reports are invaluable. Why? Well they give a snapshot as to how well the film is doing and although there may be geographical abnormalities which lead to films doing better in one place over the other they often are spot on. Also, films will often have early screenings which are also useful but should be taken with a grain of salt. Most screenings are free which means that they almost always will be full or close to full. Rather than numbers for the early screenings, the most important thing is the crowd reaction. The best source for this is usually HSX’s own TT.

3. Release date

Though the lines are blurring somewhat, it is still very clear that release date has a big impact on an opener’s potential. Know your seasons (I wrote a column on it in the past here) and how they impact openings. Also, release date changes are good insight into how well a film will do. If a film sits on the shelf for a year or two and has its release date bumped numerous times then chances are the studio is worried about recouping its investment and is trying to find the perfect place for it. Examples are numerous, take this weekend’s Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow. That was scheduled for a June opening, the heart of Summer, and was bumped back to September, one of the traditional dumping grounds for studios. Our very own Release Schedule keeps up to date with HSX’s calendar and also lists movement and delays. Another great source for release dates (and also early theatre counts) is the Early Report over at FilmJerk.

4. Reviews

You have to be careful here because reviews matter for some films more than others. For instance, Summer blockbusters often have horrible reviews yet they pull in enormous numbers. They are popcorn flicks and don’t rely at all on positive reviews as much as big action and big advertising. However, a smaller art house film opening in November will be impacted much more. Also, film festivals are a great source of reviews and early feedback. This is often only applicable to limited releases but often larger films which will adjust will bow at these festivals. Here are some of the best sources for reviews:

Rotten Tomatoes (really THE best and most trusted source)
IMDb
Yahoo! Movies

5. Prediction sites

Many people put a huge amount of stock in the prediction sites (it is evident by the large price swings once their predictions are posted on TT) but they should be for informational purposes only and to help you make up your own mind. I have tracked the accuracies since April 2004 and it is abundantly clear that they too make large mistakes. Still, reading an opener column can draw references and comparisons to films you didn’t think about and strengthen your chosen position. Here is a list of the most popular sites.

Lee Movie Info
Box Office Mojo
Box Office Guru
Box Office Report
Box Office Prophets
Weekend Warrior

6. Studio Expectations/Tracking Data

Probably the best source of predicting a film’s potential. This is what the studio’s themselves use to gauge the potential of their films and it is made up of focus groups, early screenings and other tools such as HSX itself which gauge early interest. Now, this is often very difficult to get your hands on but Variety and The Hollywood Reporter will usually both post a weekend potential column which makes reference to a ballpark figure which the studio is expecting the film’s to make.

As I said previously, there really is no certain way to make money from the openers, but by following these six steps you will be a lot better off than before and chances are be able to make consistent money.