The key to predicting openers is research. Here is what you should look for:

1) Analogs – Try to find a similar film to use as a reliable predictor of a film’s box office, but be careful not to push the point. For instance, The Rock was a good predictor for Con Air, and might be a good predictor for SNAKE (same star, all are R rated big budget action films with good studio support opening in the summer), but The Rock is not a good predictor for ARMAG, even though they have the same producer and director (director loyalty is iffy. producer loyalty is non-existent, the film has very different stars, has a different rating, and is getting a much higher level of advertising). When looking for analogs, I look for similarities in stars, advertising, buzz, number of screens, and genres. Lethal Weapon 3 is probably a decent predictor for Lethal Weapon 4, but you would have been pushing it if you had used it to predict the box office for Braveheart. Analogs are great when they are available, but don’t look for them when they don’t exist.

2) Star Power – Certain stars have a loyal following that almost guarantees a certain box office performance, provided (this is important) the star is playing the type of role(s) which made him/her a star. Bruce Willis as a world weary cop in a big nudget action film is a draw. Bruce Willis as a leading man in a sensititive drama about a person living with dyslexia is not. Similarly Tom Cruise playing a cocky hot shot who most undergo a crisis of confidence is a major draw. Cruise as an Irish farm boy emigrating to America in the mid 19th century might not be.

3) Studio Support – The studios know a lot more than we do about how much public interest exists for a given film. Strong studio support indicates that they think it will do well. Examples of strong support are moving the release date forward (ANTZ), aggressive weekend positioning (PRFCT against TRSHW), pushing for lots of screens (GODZI), and the presence of a long term media blitz (ARMAG (ads during Superbowl, like Men In Black), ZORRO, GODZI). Examples of weak support are the lack of TV advertising, moving the release date backwards, flinching in the face of competition, low screen counts, and not screening the film for critics. However, just because the studio knows more about the film and they behave like it will be a hit, doesn’t mean it will be. Studios aren’t perfect (shock!) and may treat a crappy film like a Blockbuster in the hopes that people will be fooled (GODZI is a perfect example of this). The streets of LA are littered with the corpses of execs who had big budget, high profile, bombs like Last Action Hero, Hudson Hawk, The Postman, etc., and films like TITAN, which was moved back from its original release date, show that the signs of a disaster do not mean that one is imminent.

4) Quality of advertising. If a film has an excellent theatrical trailer or a good TV commercial, it will do better. Despite what they want to admit, people ARE persuaded by advertising. Men in Black, Independence Day, Godzilla, Air Force One, and ZORRO all had/have great advertisements. When I saw the trailers, the theater audience was buzzing with anticipation afterwards. But be aware that the theater audience may be biased. The fact that the audience for Starship Troopers was pumped about GODZI and sneered at The Postman was useful information, since their target audience was similar. The fact that GODZI audiences didn’t seem to interested in HOPEF is probably irrelevant.

5) Buzz: Listen to your friends, and even strangers. Are they planning on seeing the film? Do they think it looks great? I ignored this to my regret for Deep Impact. I held fast to the notion that it would open at 22 million even though everyone I knew wanted to see the film. But be aware that your friends may be biased. If everyone you know wants to see Witness, you might want to take the fact that you live in an Amish community into consideration.

6) Reviews: There are a number of people in the country that read reviews regularly, and decide what to see based on what they read. Their numbers have a greater impact on smaller, lower budget films, since 1 million will go see every film Roger Ebert gives 4 stars to will have a greater box office impact for a smaller film like Eve’s Bayou, than it would for TRSHW. If a low budget independent film gets bad reviews, I usually run away. If a big budget blockbuster like ARMAG gets bad reviews, I shrug and pay attention to other factors. (GODZI’s relative failure was more due to bad buzz from people who saw it than it was due to bad reviews. The film started strong and got weaker and weaker as the weekend progressed, as people told their friends how bad it was).

7) Intangibles: Take into consideration things like “life imitating art” (WAGDG), or “art imitating other art” (two Volcano films), etc.

After I consider these factors, I come up with an estimated opening, look at current price, and do the math.

Things which affect my confidence: My distance from the target audience (I am better with genre and art films than I am with kid movies, “chick flicks”, and teen age slasher films), the proximity of my estimated box office to the current price, and the amount of research I have done.

Let’s see what we come up with for ARMAG:

Analogs: The July 4th weekend is a big one. ID4 and MIB hav all opened strong in the past few years (50 million for the Fri-Sunday period). I think this is useful information, but since they are very different films from ARMAG, I will take it with a grain of salt.

Star Power: Willis is big in action films, and the film has a solid supporting cast that should give it some heft at the box office.

Studio support: Considering the amount of advertising, the position on the July 4th weekend, and the fact that other studios have gotten the hell out of the way, despite the filthy lucre historically available, means that the studio is confident they have a hit. I haven’t seen screen counts yet, but I’m sure it will be very high.

Quality of advertising: I think the ads are okay, but not great, and certainly aren’t generating the buzz that ID4’s or MIB’s did. However, some of the ads are targetting women with the BAFFL/LTYLE love angle, and romance has been a very successful box office draw this year.

Buzz: Is strong. Most of my blockbuster addicted friends want to see the film

Reviews: are mediocre. The film was laughed at in Cannes, and other reviews have been tepid. However, this film is largely review-proof.

Intangibles: It follows on the heels of DPIMP, which will count against it.

Since I don’t thing advertising is up to that of MIB and ID4, I think it will do worse box office, but not a whole lot worse. the film will open strong, and its legs will depend on word of mouth. How strong? with MIB as the ceiling, I would guess a 140-150 adjustment. At the current price, I will sink my money elsewhere. SXDAY and MULAN look terrific.