Before I begin, I must mention that what appears to be a test column of mine on the hsbr.net front page is actually a Best Picture column I wrote yesterday. If you click on the link, it will take you to it (there are still parts of the site that aren’t fully operational yet, so please forgive my oopsie!). On to the race for Best Director.
Most years, there is a fairly simple three-stage formula to follow to successfully predict the nominees in this category. Start with the five DGA (Directors Guild) nominees. Subtract any nominees whose film came out a long time ago and whose buzz has faltered, especially if the director is not well known. And finally, add in any fairly popular director whose film has picked up a lot of late buzz, especially one whose “time has come” for a nomination. Simple, right? This formula works, but mostly only with hindsight. And remember, the Academy uses a voting system where members can list up to five choices, but it is usually either their first or second choice that winds up counting, so it is the films voters are passionate enough about to list high that get through, not just the popular ones. That said, let’s try to nail this year’s five names.
The five DGA nominees are Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain, George Clooney for Good Night, And Good Luck, Steven Spielberg for Munich, Paul Haggis for Crash and Bennett Miller for Capote.
Ang Lee is the obvious first choice. Brokeback Mountain is the year’s industry darling, likely earning the most nominations of any film on the 31st, and with Lee actually winning the DGA award last night, his Oscar nomination is assured. Nothing more needs to be said about it, we all know Le is in.
George Clooney is the second choice; he has earned a ton of praise for his tight direction of Good Night, And Good Luck, and he has that “it’s his time” feel about him. Expect enough voters to list Clooney as their #2 or 3 choice to get him through.
After those two no –brainers, we have to start gauging those second and third stages of the formula to make our decisions. So for our third choice, let’s go with Steven Spielberg and Munich. Sure, he has been nominated before, but Munich is Spielberg’s strongest film since Saving Private Ryan; it is relevant to today’s world, a little controversial which the directors often seem to embrace, and one of only two big Oscar contenders made by big-name directors. I see enough first and second choice votes going Spielberg’s way to get him to the big show again, even if Munich may miss out on a Best Picture nod.
For our fourth choice, it is time to bump the weak link from the DGA chain: say goodbye to Bennett Miller. He has no film credits to his name save for a documentary about a tour bus operator in the nineties, and the Capote push is likely going to mostly come from the actors branch, so let’s pass him over in favour of A History Of Violence and David Cronenberg. He has been following his own weird little path since the seventies, and though his career began with some material of questionable quality, Cronenberg has quietly, slowly earned the respect of his peers for masterful films like Spider and Dead Ringers, and for solid mainstream fare like The Dead Zone. A History Of Violence is his masterpiece, widely acclaimed specifically for Cronenberg’s direction, though also for other aspects as well. Expect a lot of first place mentions by voters, enough to push the Canuck into his first ever Oscar nomination.
We have some decision-making to do for the fifth spot. Can Paul Haggis hold on to it for Crash, or will someone push him out? Let’s look at the contenders for Haggis’ seat and compare them. Peter Jackson’s King Kong earned a lot of love when it hit theatres, but the Lord of the Rings trilogy is still fresh in voter’s minds, and I can’t see many of them placing Jackson higher than Haggis, whose film has really touched a lot of people and has kept its buzz going despite opening long ago. Ron Howard could be considered for Cinderella Man, but the buzz on that film is pretty dead, and Howard’s win for A Beautiful Mind was only a few years ago, making him also a likely candidate for fourth or fifth spot on the ballots. Fernando Meirelles could make a push for The Constant Gardener, as the directors loved his previous City Of God enough to hand it an Oscar nomination, but will they be as quick to champion him again? I think it is a definite possibility. Both Gardener and Crash have been championed, but Crash more so for its performances, while Gardener has been mentioned for both its cast and direction, giving it an edge here. So let’s name Fernando Meirelles our fifth choice. Of course, I won’t be stunned to see Paul Haggis get named, I just see Meirelles earning higher-placed votes on the ballots.
Finally, though his chances would seem to be incredibly slim, I feel I must also mention Michael Haneke as a crazy dark horse choice. His film Cache is earning a lot of late-season buzz, picking up a host of “Best Foreign-language Film” honours. And the directors have shown a penchant for choosing foreign filmmakers as their annual surprise picks, so don’t count the European provocateur out. But, with nothing concrete to point to as evidence of a coming nomination, I can’t justify naming Haneke as a solid choice. I’m just sayin’ watch out is all.
One last reminder that my “test column” on the front page is actually a Best Picture column, just follow the title link to read it. I will attempt to squeeze in an actors column tomorrow, but may run out of time before the nominations come out. Stay tuned!
Tim Chandler