David Lynch wants to save us from Hollywood. Watching his works, you can almost feel him seething at the way straightforward, unimaginative cinema gets heaped with praise, year after year. When a film like Chocolat garners something like ten Oscar nominations, he must just want to pull a Terrence Malick and walk away from it all. Instead, he reaches into that cracked mind of his and pulls out a Blue Velvet, or a Lost Highway. His abstract attempts at cinema aren’t always successful (even Lynch has said he doesn’t know what Lost Highway was about), but they always manage to slap viewers across the face and remind them of what is possible. In the case of Mulholland Drive, the slap reverberates for hours after the credits have rolled.

Mulholland Drive is Lynch’s twisted ode to Hollywood, that nucleus of the cinematic world that attracts every one of us to some extent. Lynch takes the conspiracy theorist’s belief that Tinseltown is secretly run by a mysterious cabal and runs naked through the fields with it, using the absurd idea to turn his Hollywood into a kind of freaky puppet show. The impression one gets is that Lynch sees in Hollywood an evil core that corrupts everything it touches. As we watch star after star fall into various addictions, I wonder how far he is from the truth?

The main plot follows a woman who has lost her memory after surviving a limousine crash in the Hollywood hills. She spies people leaving for vacation and finds refuge in their home, only to discover the owner’s niece moving in. The niece, an aspiring actress named Betty, discovers the strange woman who chooses to call herself Rita and decides to help her discover her identity.

The second story concerns a film being cast; a young director and his producers are discussing who should be the female lead when two mysterious men walk in and hand over a headshot saying only “This is the girl.” The young director has no idea who they are, but his producers trip over themselves trying to please the strangers. The director finds himself learning certain truths about Hollywood, and the decision whether to acquiesce or resist forms the crux of his tale.

Of course, as this is a Lynch movie, there is much, much more, and everything is related. About two-thirds of the way through the movie, Lynch winks at the audience and changes everything, with certain members of the cast abruptly seeming to play different people and our tenuous grasp on what is going on disappears completely. It all has to do with someone opening a little blue box, you see. But Lynch’s wink is no simple trick, like when he traded Bill Pullman for Balthasar Getty in Lost Highway. It is the necessary finger snap to reveal the full story, and Lynch follows it with a brilliant, powerful climax that pulls everything together.

Everything about this film works. Lynch’s direction is central to the film’s power; he superimposes images, un-focuses parts of scenes, and sets out his film in such a way as to keep us a little bit lost, but always eager to find out what comes next. Long-time Lynch collaborator Angelo Badalamenti contributes a moody, wonderful score that0 takes several emotional scenes to a higher level. The cast is near flawless; Justin Theroux plays the young director with a Vincent Gallo ego who has to learn the real way things are done in Hollywood. His belief that the power of his art makes him a powerful man leads to some of the film’s most surreal moments, including getting punched by a surprise cast member who shall remain nameless. Laura Elena Harring plays the confused Rita, whose role becomes increasingly central to the story. Harring gives Rita a suitable air of despair and frustration, and is every inch the Hollywood bombshell. Perhaps the finest performance comes from Naomi Watts, who plays the ingénue Betty. Watts is forced to handle several very different emotions through the film, and much of Mulholland Drive’s success rests on her ability to captivate us. Needless to say, she does, perfectly.

Of course, Hollywood itself has a starring role. In Lynch’s deft hands, that bastion of glamour and excess becomes a mystical town where forces of good and evil are in constant struggle. Characters are guided, both gently and viciously, to their ultimate destinies by strange, spiritual characters who wander the hills in various garb. Hollywood takes on the air of a small, Maine town in a Stephen King novel, where once the townspeople are old enough, they learn the way things really are. The film serves as a warning against making the journey to stardom, but simultaneously lures you with the promise of power.

Is this Lynch’s finest film? Impossible to say, since his films are all so different. What can be said is that Mulholland Drive represents a level of cinematic daring seldom seen today combined with a story that in the end is as emotional and intimate as it is whacked. With this his latest, Lynch has once again reminded us of how putrid most of Hollywood’s output really is, and has confirmed that the demons that brought us Twin Peaks haven’t left him.

Mulholland Drive is one of the finest films ever by this master storyteller and must not be missed at any cost. Go see it and rediscover what great cinema is all about.

Grade: A+

Tim Chandler

7. Heist

Today we start with the latest from David Mamet, in my opinion the best screenwriter working today. He has cultivated a small group of loyal fans with his clipped, rapid-fire dialogue, me among them, and quite often other directors have taken his work to box office success. However, when Mamet directs his own work, profit tends to be either minimal (Spanish Prisoner made just over $10 million) or non-existent (Oleanna grossed only $124,000). Heist, his latest, promises to be more profitable than any of his recent efforts, but just how much can it make?

This year has proven heist movies to be a fairly consistent box office draw. The Score opened to a very respectable $19 million, while Bandits managed a less impressive $13 million earlier this month. The question is do Gene Hackman, Danny DeVito and Delroy Lindo have the drawing power of Bruce Willis or Robert DeNiro in such movies? And do Heist’s ads attract the same people who saw Bandits and Score?

Of all the actors mentioned above, only Willis can occasionally guarantee box office success, and then only in certain kinds of films. So since the stars of Heist can guarantee only that the film won’t be wholly ignored, we need to look elsewhere to figure out how well it will do. The ads are hip, and give a good glimpse of Mamet’s style. But they are filled with the stars talking to each other, with only one or two quick action shots. Unlike The Score and Bandits, Heist is clearly more cerebral, a “talky”. This limits its opening weekend appeal, but with critical praise could mean long legs.

Perhaps the most important thing to consider in Heist’s case is screen count. Mamet’s films never open very wide (State and Main had at its widest release 462 screens and its largest weekend gross was $1.7 million), but Heist could open on anywhere from 800 to 1600 screens depending on how strong of a push the studio makes. Because of this unknown, making one solid estimate is impossible. Going from least possible number of screens to most, I’d say Heist can open anywhere from $6 to $9 million dollars. However, it has competition.

The only other film opening November 9th is Shallow Hal, a comedy that shouldn’t impact on Heist’s chances very much. What worries me more is the trio of films that will be entering their second weekend: The One, Domestic Disturbance and Monsters, Inc. There is a good chance that the people who wanted to see both The One and Disturbance but could only choose one on November 2nd will then choose between whichever is left and Heist, leaving Heist behind. Also, Monsters, Inc. will still be raking in the big bucks, hurting Heist’s chances even more. Considering that people will still likely only choose one film to see that weekend, I’m dropping my estimate for Heist to anywhere from $4 to $7 million.

On the HSX, Heist (HEIST) is trading at $25.96, the equivalent of a $9 million open. My estimate range equals an adjusted price of anywhere from $11.60 to $20.30. I recommend HEIST as a good shorting opportunity right now, because it is relatively safe. When the screen count is announced, the only thing that can happen is the stock price will drop; should the screen count be on the high end of my expectations, let’s say 1500, the price will not rise, but if the screen count is low, the price will definitely drop. Thus, there is little fear for you the investor. Also, even if the film adjusts to $20.30, the high end of my range, it is still a profit of $5.66 per share, or a 22% ROI. That’s 1.4% a day, not bad. Shorting the maximum will cost you only $1.3 million, much less than the other stocks we have looked so far.

Post-adjust, this stock’s fortunes will largely depend on critical praise.

8. Shallow Hal

The premise of Shallow Hal seems to be “come watch that hottie Gwyneth Paltrow play a huge, fat girl”. In other words, it’s a real family charmer just in time for the holidays. Yecch. How this film will be anything but utterly insulting to the obese is beyond me, and what made Gwyneth sign on, I’ll never know.

Neither Gwyneth nor Jack Black, the film’s stars, are box office draws. In fact, Jack Black’s abrasive jerk screen persona turns many people off, ruining any chance they will see this film. There was a brief time about three years ago when the words “written and directed by The Farrelly Brothers” might have guaranteed some profits, but those days disappeared with the double whammy of Say It Isn’t So and Osmosis Jones. So with absolutely nothing about the cast or crew to draw people into theatres (except perhaps for a small, devoted Gwyneth fan club), the film’s fortunes really rely on the ads.

Sadly, the ads will attract only the small, immature portion of North America that thought Say It Isn’t So’s comedic genius fully emerged when Chris Klein drove his fist into a cow’s ass to retrieve a ring. It has no real appeal, nothing going for it at all in fact, which leads me to an estimate of $7 million. That’s before competition of course. Shallow Hal’s competition problems are the same those listed for Heist, except that Heist at least has some appeal. I can’t see anyone choosing Hal over Disturbance, The One, Heist or Monsters, Inc. The large, better-looking competition drops my estimate down to $4 million.

On HSX, Shallow Hal (SHHAL) is priced at $47.45, equal to an opening weekend of $16.4 million. This is a tremendous shorting opportunity for investors. Even if my estimate is off by 100% and SHHAL opens to $8 million, that’s still an adjusted price of $23.20, a profit of $24.25, or a return of 51%. Over 16 days until adjustment, that’s 3.1% a day. And remember, these numbers are if the film does double what I expect it to. This is a golden opportunity for portfolios of all sizes, and I recommend it strongly.

Post-adjust, expect SHHAL to definitely not match the 2.9 multiplier, making it a strong short until delist.

Sometime after the weekend, I will finish off November with a look at Super Troopers, Texas Rangers, OUTCold and The Wash.

Notes:

This column represents my personal views and not those of the website.
My estimates for opening weekends will slightly change over time as screen counts and other information become available.
To get the most out of the HSX, you should take advice like that I have offered as a beginning towards making up your own mind. Look at the things I have said and see where you disagree with them, and thus come up with your own numbers, it is the only way to truly enjoy this game.

Tim Chandler

Both of the films I’ll look at today have the same hope: that the popularity of their stars will equal big bucks. Because let’s face it; very few people would jump to see a movie about a guy killing his counterparts in parallel universes if it starred a nobody. And a starless movie about spies working Asia needs a bit of oomph should it want to make money. Enter Jet Li, Brad Pitt and Robert Redford.

5. Spy Game

After watching the trailer for Spy Game, I was shocked to read that it is directed by Tony Scott. Scott is the man who brought us Top Gun, Crimson Tide, True Romance and Enemy of the State. What surprised me was the incredible lack of any action in the trailers. Are they deliberately toned down due to the current political climate, or has Scott actually made a more cerebral, less physical picture this time? If he has, it could mean a lower opening but longer legs than his norm.

While there are all the usual suspects to consider with Spy Game, its success or lack of it all comes down to two things: Pitt and Redford. Neither has any box office appeal. Redford’s lack of drawing power is most obvious with the current Last Castle. Despite a large ad campaign, the film opened to only $7 million. And think back to Redford’s bigger pictures from the last decade; Indecent Proposal, Up Close and Personal, Horse Whisperer. They opened to $18, $11 and $14 million respectively. Not bad, but considering they, in order, starred Demi Moore at the top of her star, co-starred Michelle Pfeiffer, and was based on a beyond popular novel, those numbers are a bit weak.

Brad Pitt is even worse. Since 1995, he has had only one movie open over $20 million: The Mexican, which happened to co-star the world’s biggest female star, Julia Roberts. The Mexican’s $20.1 million opening weekend represents one of Julia’s worst, and the film’s $66 million total gross is her worst since 1996 when she appeared in a Woody Allen musical! As you look over the films where Pitt has shared the screen with a bigger star, he invariably reduces that star’s usual box office take (The Devil’s Own with Harrison Ford only opened to $14 million, horrible for Ford). And when Pitt has been the biggest name on the marquee, he is incredibly consistent; his films open somewhere between $10 and $15 million, every time.

So where does this leave Spy Game? It is a film with two stars who tend to reduce the box office of their films, neither of whom can usually open a film better than $15 million, with an explosive director who doesn’t seem to have filmed any explosions. This leaves me to start considering a weekend gross of about $15 million. However, it is a gritty, dark looking film about spies in a foreign country, and with today’s political climate, I’m not sure this is what people want to see. People want to laugh and have fun, something severely lacking from Spy Game’s trailers. This pushes my estimate down to about $12 million. In terms of competition, it will have to deal with Harry Potter at its popularity peak, Black Knight, which I believe will better fit the type of film people are looking for, and OUTCold, which won’t be a factor. The competition drops my estimate to $10 million.

The film’s only saving grace, from what I can see, is that it opens over the Thanksgiving holidays. That gives it two extra days to make some money and brings me to my final estimate of $12 million over five days.

For HSX players, this makes Spy Game (SPYGM) a great investment. SPYGM is currently priced at $60.26, which, with the holiday multiplier of 2.3, works out to an opening weekend of $26.2 million over five days. My $12 million estimate is equivalent to a stock price of $27.60, a potential profit of $32.66 per stock! Even if my estimate is too low by half, and SPYGM makes $18 million over the long weekend, that’s still an adjusted price of $41.40, worlds lower than the current $60.26.

There is simply no way SPYGM will match its current price, and I recommend shorting this stock to every port owner who can afford to. Shorting the maximum will cost you just over $3 million dollars, and with my estimated adjust price, will be worth $4.6 million on Nov. 25th. That’s a return of 50% on your investment over 30 days, or 1.7% a day. If you can afford to short the full 50k, I would do so, and if your port is too small, you can still short 15 or 25k.

Depending on crowd reaction and critical reviews, SPYGM may eventually match its 2.3 adjust, so I cannot recommend buying or shorting post-adjust.

6. The One

Jet Li is still trying to find his place here in North America. Most people noticed him for the first time in Lethal Weapon 4, where he took names and kicked asses left and right. Next up was an import called Black Mask, which opened to only $4 million, showing that Li needed to cultivate his star power before making the big bucks. Romeo Must Die had a respectable $18 million opener, while Kiss of the Dragon, his latest, opened only to $13 million.

Romeo Must Die featured a strong, appealing ad campaign. It made Li’s martial arts look like part of a greater story, and appealed to the urban community as well with its gang war story. Kiss of the Dragon’s ads made little sense, and Bridget Fonda has never exactly been a box office draw. So it might not surprise you that I’m considering The One’s ads to be the #1 factor in determining whether it will rise or fall.

The trailer gives viewers a very good snapshot of what the story is all about, much like Romeo Must Die did. However, this is a very different film. Instead of Li doing his martial arts, we have Li playing a super-powered bad guy who tosses around motorcycles while doing his martial arts and a good super-powered guy to boot. The ads look a bit cheesy, and the special effects, or which there are apparently plenty, look cheap. This leads me to put The One’s box office potential at slightly above Kiss of the Dragon but below Romeo Must Die, or about $14 million.

Other factors to consider are the usual suspects: competition, release date and political climate. The One is being released on the first weekend of November, which means people will likely choose only one film to see. Competition consists of Domestic Disturbance, which will steal some of One’s audience; young men who want to see The One may find Domestic Disturbance is a much easier sell to their girlfriends and choose it instead. The One’s bigger problem is Monsters, Inc., which will draw from every age group and dominate the weekend with ease. These two competitors reduce my estimate down to about $10 million dollars. However, people may be a bit more willing to choose a mindless action flick right now, which pushes my estimate up to $11 million.

How does an $11 million opening weekend translate into HSX dollars? The One’s stock (THONE) is currently priced at $44.64. This represents a $15.4 million opening weekend. With my estimate, THONE should adjust in price to $31.90, a drop of $12.74 per share. This represents a theoretical return of 28.5% over 9 days, over 3.2% a day, making this a terrific short opportunity. Shorting the maximum 50k will set you back $2.2 million, and covering post-adjust would return to you $2.8 million.

This represents another strong opportunity for portfolios of all sizes. Short only 20k if it is all you can afford, but do short; a 3% daily return is well worth the gamble.

THONE will likely delist well below wherever the stock adjusts on Nov. 4th, so be prepared to re-short the stock after adjustment.

I hope to cover all of the remaining November stocks before the end of October, though there is no guarantee I will have time. Tomorrow I hope to cover Heist and Shallow Hal.

Notes:

This column represents my personal views and not those of the website.
My estimates for opening weekends will slightly change over time as screen counts and other information become available.
To get the most out of the HSX, you should take advice like that I have offered as a beginning towards making up your own mind. Look at the things I have said and see where you disagree with them, and thus come up with your own numbers, it is the only way to truly enjoy this game.

Tim Chandler

The movies I’m covering today are in the middling group that on an average month like March would probably manage a $10-18 opening weekend, but in November could see that rise to $18-30. Many such movies do very well in November; Charlie’s Angels had a $40 million weekend, for example. I do not think it could have managed more than $25 million in February or September.

A lot of big-budget and big-star movies fail in November. This is because a lot of sub-par movies get dumped here with the hope that somehow the holidays will save their box office chances. Let’s face it, no studio execs could have possibly expected Little Nicky to equal Waterboy’s $39 million weekend. That it opened to even $16 million is in large part due to the month. Other duds like Red Planet ($8.7 opening weekend) prove that special effects are no guarantee to success in November.

This year’s middle group consists of one big-name comedy, one special effects action movie, and two serious action/dramas with big stars. Today, I’ll deal with two of them.

3. Black Knight

Martin Lawrence has a fairly impressive box office record. The last three movies in which he was the main star were Big Momma’s House, Blue Streak and What’s The Worst That Could Happen? Big Momma opened to $25.7 million in June ’00, while Blue Streak made an impressive $19.2 in September ’99. What’s The Worst managed only $13.0 this June, which proves that his name is no guarantee. Lawrence’s box office performance depends almost entirely on one obvious thing: how funny the films look in the ads. Big Momma and Blue Streak had ads that made people want to see them, while What’s The Worst simply cried out “Martin Lawrence vehicle”. So how does Black Knight look?

I would put crowd reaction to the Black Knight ads under that of Blue Streak and way above that of What’s the Worst. From this, I’ll peg Black Knight at a $16 million opening weekend. In terms of competition, there is only one other comedy opening that day, OutCOLD. OutCOLD features no big stars, no big anything in fact, and will not likely hurt Black Knight’s chances in any way. Also opening is Spy Game, a drama whose target audience lightly overlaps Black Knight’s, however the films over Thanksgiving, which gives people five nights to catch both films.

Thanksgiving is a boon to almost every film that opens upon it; Unbreakable made $46 million, Sleepy Hollow $30 million. It is rare for a comedy to open here, but it should still benefit equally. The long weekend makes me push my estimate for Black Knight up to about $23 million.

In terms of HSX, Thanksgiving presents a problem. The usual 2.9 multiplier for the opening weekend adjust in price isn’t usable for holiday weekends. Instead, HSX uses a 2.3 multiplier for Thanksgiving. This changes everything when considering whether to buy a stock or not. A $23 million opening usually equals an adjusted price of $66.70. Thanksgiving weekend, that $23 million, spread over five days, equals an adjusted price of $52.90, a $14 difference. Black Knight (KNGHT) is currently priced at $36.37, the equivalent of a $15.8 million opening weekend. Buying the maximum of KNGHT right now would cost you $1.8 million dollars. With my estimated adjust price, your investment would be worth $2.6 million. That’s a 44% increase in price over 32 days, or 1.4% a day. This makes KNGHT a good buy for all portfolios. Small portfolio owners might want to buy only 20 or 25k shares, but if you can afford to lock up $1.8 million for a month, I believe this is a great investment for you.

4. Domestic Disturbance

John Travolta’s career path has been well covered, from his hits like Pulp Fiction to his absolute disasters (Battlefield: Earth). He has lost much of his star power, meaning his movies have to truly look good to make lots of money (Lucky Numbers only made $10 million total). So how does it look?

I personally think the ads make it look worse than it will really be. They feature Travolta and Vince Vaughn throwing out a handful of cheesy one-liners like “You wouldn’t want your daddy to get hurt, would ya Johnny?” but the film has a strong director (Harold Becker) who knows how to make taut thrillers. The important thing is that the TV ads for Disturbance are getting heavy circulation on key stations, and are reaching their target audience. I believe the ads alone are strong enough to put Domestic Disturbance somewhere between a Travolta hit (General’s Daughter, $22.3 million opener) and a Travolta bomb (Battlefield: Earth, $11.5). Let’s start with $16 million.

Disturbance opens the first week of November, a weekend that has been a moderate success to other action/dramas. The Siege made $13.9 million opening against The Waterboy, while Bone Collector made $16.7 on this weekend. This places my $16 million in the right ballpark. However, Domestic Disturbance has a big problem, and it is called The One. The Jet Li thriller opens the same day as Disturbance, and the films’ target audiences overlap to a considerable degree. The weekend is too far from Thanksgiving to hope people will catch both films right away, so Disturbance’s chances are going to be hurt.

Another problem is Monsters, Inc. Monsters will also siphon away some of Disturbance’s target audience, mainly young couples looking for light fare. With this one-two competition punch, I cannot see Domestic Disturbance making more than $12 million its first weekend.

Domestic Disturbance (DOMDS) is currently priced at $33.11. That’s equivalent to an opening weekend of $11.4. My $12 opening would mean an adjusted price of $34.80, close enough to current price to show no potential here at all. I would advise owners of smaller ports that own DOMDS to sell their shares, as there is no point in having them take up space that can be used elsewhere.

Tomorrow I will cover The One and Spy Game.

Notes:

This column represents my personal views and not those of the website.
To get the most out of the HSX, you should take advice like that I have offered as a beginning towards making up your own mind. Look at the things I have said and see where you disagree with them, and thus come up with your own numbers, it is the only way to truly enjoy this game.

Tim Chandler

November is only days away and the big end of year cinema blitz is about to begin. Is your bank account ready for the number of blockbusters left to come in 2001? And, in terms of the HSX, is your portfolio set to capitalize on what will eventually be millions of dollars in easy money?

This will be a multi-day look at the month of November, beginning with the blockbusters.

1. Harry Potter & The Sorcerer’s Stone

The Harry Potter series is platinum. The books are beyond successful because they are attractive to everyone. Harry is a Hardy Boy for the 21st century, a protagonist that parents want their children to read about. The books are well written and on the shelves at a time when there are really no other competitors of note. In short, every parent who has read a Potter book to their child will not only take that child to see the movie, but they will take them willingly. Imagine how many more millions Pokemon: The First Movie would have made had parents not been so reluctant to spend money on it.

Potter has one drawback that will hurt its theoretical box office chances: its run time. It has been reported that Harry Potter will run about 153 minutes. Add the usual 20-30 minutes of theatrical previews that children’s films garner and you’ve got theatres stretching to get four screenings in a day (per screen). With an average kids film, this would be a major drawback, however in Harry’s case, it shouldn’t much matter; Harry is being released on over 4,000 screens. That’s right, Potter is reportedly going to break the record for # of opening screens, which should counter any time constraints the chains have.

Another bonus is Potter’s release date. Opening the weekend before Thanksgiving might at first seem odd, but look at how well the strategy worked for The Grinch Who Stole Christmas last year. By opening one week early, it allows audiences to catch the film, love it, and then go see it again over the long weekend.

So how well will Potter do? Over the last five years, several family films have opened hugely over Thanksgiving: A Bug’s Life – $47 million, 101 Dalmatians $45 million, Toy Story 2 – $80.1 million. The only family blockbuster to try opening the weekend before Thanksgiving was The Grinch, which opened to $55.1 million. Note that The Grinch had competition from Rugrats in Paris, which opened to $23 million. This suggests that the weekend’s potential for family films is as high as $78 million.

I think $78 million is a good number to center on when thinking of Harry’s box office chances. A lot of parents are more willing to take their children to see two different movies in one weekend than to see the same movie twice, which brings the number down to about $72. However, compare the eagerness of parents everywhere to take their kids to Harry Potter to the uncertainty some parents felt about Jim Carrey possibly corrupting their beloved cartoon. I believe a large number of families waited to take their kids to Grinch until after they heard from other parents who saw the film. Harry will be stronger from Day One. This brings the box office potential back up to about $80 million. And Harry Potter has only The Wash, an urban comedy directed by DJ Pooh, as competition, which will not affect its box office at all.

As I’m writing this, HPOTT is priced at $192.35. That is equal to an opening weekend of $66.33, much lower than the $80 million I expect.

Buying the maximum 50k shares of HPOTT will set you back over $9.7 million incl. commission. After an $80 million weekend (adjust to $232.00), your purchase would be worth $11.5 million incl. commission, a gain of just under $2 million. That’s an 18.6% return on your investment, or 0.7% a day. Taking into account HPOTT’s massive price, this a good investment opportunity for large portfolios that can afford to drop $10 million in one transaction, but much too expensive for smaller ports. If you have a small portfolio but want to own some HPOTT, go ahead and buy one or two thousand shares and sit on them until adjust day. But do not buy too much, because inevitably, it will take up too much room in your portfolio and you will wind up selling them in 5 days, to a devastating commission fine.

HPOTT will be a definite buy for everyone after it adjusts, as it will do much better than the traditional 2.9 multiplier.

2. Monsters, Inc.

Monsters, Inc is the new film by the gang behind the Toy Story movies. Their track record is flawless to date, with Toy Story, Toy Story 2 and A Bug’s Life all making oodles of cash and delighting families everywhere. Few are the people who hated these films. This time around we have the story of the world of monsters that lies on the other side of our closet door at night. It is a brilliant idea for a story, because all kids know about the Bogeyman and all parents remember their own.

Monsters, Inc. features the voice of Billy Crystal and John Goodman, among others. The ads are light and fun, and give the film the same appealing luster that made the Toy Stories successes. The film opens November 2nd, which gives it plenty of time to make millions before the Beast Known As Harry lands in theatres.

Toy Story opened to $39.1 million in 1996, and A Bug’s Life made $46.1 million in 1998. Toy Story 2 made $80.1 million last Thanksgiving, but it was a sequel and thus won’t be considered here. Non-Pixar animated films run the gamut of opening weekends from Disney’s The Lion King ($40.7 million in 1994) to WB’s Quest For Camelot ($6.0 million in 1998). As both Disney’s and Pixar’s histories prove, a brand name can go a long way towards making an animated film money. You will never see an animated Disney open to less than $20 million in June, and I doubt you will ever see a Pixar animation open to less then $25.

Taking Bug’s Life’s $46 million, I’m adding $4 million for increased ticket prices and available # of screens. Another $3 million because I believe Monsters, Inc. is more appealing than Bug’s Life was, and finally another $2 million because we are at war and people need some comic relief. Competition for the weekend consists of The One, Domestic Disturbance, and on relatively few screens, Life As A House, none of which should influence Monsters, Inc.’s take. This all adds up to a $55 million weekend.

Monsters, Inc. (MONST) is currently priced at $160.59, which translates to an opening weekend of $55.4 million. I thus do not recommend buying or shorting this stock, no matter what your portfolio’s size. The cost (over $8 million) to purchase the full 50k is too high and the chance of a payoff too small. Focus your port’s money on HPOTT if you must choose one.

As with HPOTT, MONST should outperformthe traditional 2.9 multiplier and thus will be a post-adjust buy.

Those are the only two movies opening in November that I would label blockbusters. Tomorrow I will feature the medium level box office champs: Domestic Disturbance, The One, Black Knight and Spy Game.

Notes:

My estimated opening weekend for HPOTT would be the largest non-holiday weekend opening of all time, but I think Harry can do it.
This column represents my personal views and not those of the website.
To get the most out of the HSX, you should take advice like that I have offered as a beginning towards making up your own mind. Look at the things I have said and see where you disagree with them, and thus come up with your own numbers, it is the only way to truly enjoy this game.

Tim Chandler

Thrillers come and thrillers go, and rarely do they provide me with anything about which to get excited. Year after year, another Along Came A Spider arrives just in time to disappoint me, forcing me to hug my copy of David Fincher’s Se7en close, and ponder a genre that is almost as conventional as the romantic comedy. This week’s attempt at a break-out thriller? Don’t Say a Word.

Michael Douglas plays Nathan Conrad, a brilliant psychiatrist who must do the bidding of a criminal in order to save the life of his young daughter. The bad guy, a vaguely European character named Patrick and played by Sean Bean, is after a gem valued at $10 million, and kidnaps Conrad’s daughter because he knows that only so brilliant a psychiatrist as he can find out where it is. Huh you ask? You see it turns out that the only person with knowledge of the rock’s location is a teenaged girl (Brittany Murphy, Summer Catch) locked in a mental institute. Can Dr. Conrad get the catatonic girl with twenty different diagnoses who “it took five men to restrain” to start talking, and reveal the six digit number that will somehow reveal the gem’s location?

Don’t Say A Word is a lot like director Gary Fleder’s previous thriller Kiss The Girls. Morgan Freeman’s forensic pathologist and Douglas’ psychiatrist are essentially the same character in the same situation. Both have to come to the aid of women who have been abused in some way by vicious, evil men. Both race against time to solve the puzzle before an innocent gets killed. And both feature seasoned actors paying the bills with their stock performance.

Films like these tend to start out well. We the audience are never given the full story right away, and until we have all of the facts, there is something to look forward to. It is right around the two-thirds mark in the garden-variety thriller that the hero is in possession of all the facts, but decides to change the rules. They choose to fight back, using their ultra-IQs to thwart the baddies’ plans. This is where I lose interest. In Don’t Say a Word, Famke Janssen (Made) plays Dr. Conrad’s wife. She has one leg in a full cast, completely immobile. Yet at one point she manages to not only escape from a bad guy, but also brutally hurt him. This is a criminal who has just spent ten years in prison. Dr. Conrad gets a considerable number of jabs in himself, beating up several hardened criminals. Is kung fu perhaps a required course in a NY psychiatry program?

A large part of the problem lies with the film’s star. Michael Douglas is like Harrison Ford in that he has, over the space of decades, built himself an established character type whom he plays perfectly. In Dr. Conrad one can spot bits of Wall Street’s Gordon Gekko, Falling Down’s William Foster, and Disclosure’s Tom Sanders. It is telling that Douglas’ attempts at radically different characters tend to meet with box office death (Wonder Boys, One Night At McCool’s); to the world, Douglas is a rich, successful man. He is one with his favorite character. And so instead of Dr. Conrad having any kind of emotional breakdown or lack of certainty, he is eerily confident as he dares to make demands of his puppeteers, throwing his ego and confidence into the surprised face of his tormentors.

Thanks perhaps to Douglas’ star power, screenwriters Anthony Peckham and Patrick Smith Kelly underwrote all the film’s other characters. Murphy’s catatonic schizoid does nothing but look drugged, a pale reflection of Angelina Jolie in Girl, Interrupted. Janssen is given nothing to do as the obligatory less-successful wife, and Oliver Platt (Ready To Rumble) and Jennifer Esposito (Dracula 2000) phone in one-dimensional performances. Skye McCole Bartusiak (The Patriot) plays the brainy-but-cute child character who shows up in so many mediocre thrillers. And every one of the bad guys is cut and pasted from action movies past, even the insulting fast-talking black guy.

If you have been watching the ads for this film trying to guess what the six-digit number in Brittany Murphy’s head signifies, you may as well stop trying. The Rules of the Conventional Thriller, which Gary Fleder carefully follows, demand an the over-the-top explanation, and that’s exactly what we get. That six-digit number represents something that you cannot guess even halfway through the film. Its meaning is basically told to you near the end, to make sure you follow through to the hokey climax.

When oh when will I get another thriller to cherish and own with pride? When will Hollywood find another Fincher to truly enthrall me with an original mystery? When will I next be able to stand up and say “THIS a thrilling movie!”

Come on Hollywood! Break the bloody rules!

Grade: C

Tim Chandler

There are only so many places where people feel absolutely safe: their home, their place of work, and for many, their car. There is just something about driving your own vehicle that provides a sense of peace and satisfaction, which is what makes it such a popular topic for the horror and thriller film industries.

Road trip thrillers come in many forms, because the genre offers screenwriters a wide array of bad guys from which to choose. On a road trip, you can encounter a psycho at a pit stop (The Vanishing), scheming criminals (Breakdown), monsters (Jeepers Creepers) or, in Joy Ride’s twist, a horny guy with a big ass truck. I personally love road trip thrillers, because they involve events that could happen to any of us, at any given moment.

Joy Ride is a fine addition to the genre, featuring a fast-paced mix of frights and laughs. Paul Walker (The Fast & The Furious) plays Lewis Thomas, a young man who decides to buy an old car and drive across the country to pick up his old friend Venna (LeeLee Sobieski, The Glass House) from school. On his way, he winds up detouring and picking his older brother Fuller (Steve Zahn, Saving Silverman), who has just been released from prison. Fuller installs an old CB radio and the brothers kill time playing with it.

The film really gets started when Lewis verbally toys with a trucker on the CB, pretending to be a woman and inviting him to join “her” in room 17 of the next motel. The practical joke goes sour when the occupant of room 17 turns up mauled and mutilated, and the brothers realize that somewhere out on the road is a trucker with one major gag to repay.

Joy Ride has a little something for everyone. For those who love their thrillers darker than dark, there are a few moments of stunning brutality; the sinister and mysterious truck driver, known by his radio call sign “Rusty Nail”, gets quite irate at times. For those who like a bit of levity with their action, I give you Steve Zahn. Zahn is great as the wisecracking, high-strung, hard drinking Fuller, and steals countless scenes from his cast mates. But Fuller is not a one-dimensional goof; though it is him to puts Lewis up to his female impersonation, it is also he who pulls them out of the fire several times. And for those who like their bad guy mysterious and quiet, Rusty Nail is nothing but a voice on the radio for most of the film.

The film is directed by John Dahl (Rounders), who keeps the action rolling at a quick pace. After a slow start that sets up the various personalities and characters involved, things get real hairy real fast. Perhaps for once a film’s ads actually help by what they reveal; knowing the barebones of the plot from the get-go, the instant Rusty Nail’s voice is first emitted from Lewis’ CB, I got hooked. Knowing that this emotionless voice would be attached to some kind of freak or psycho makes the early scenes much more interesting than they really are.

The screenplay by Clay Tarver and Jeffrey Abrams fits Joy Ride’s teen-oriented feel, but is far from wonderful. Apart from Zahn’s Fuller, the other characters are all underwritten. Not enough effort is put into giving them personalities; Sobieski’s Venna gets a brief bit of interesting action when she finds herself attracted to both brothers in different ways, but other than that she just stands around looking either determined or frightened. Paul Walker gets to go along with Steve Zahn’s ride, but shows why he is a popular choice for dumb movies like The Fast & The Furious and The Skulls. He can’t play anything but a slightly tough pretty boy.

What Joy Ride does, and this is the main reason why I enjoyed it considerably, is remind us that while road rage may be the buzzword of the decade, it is often our own actions that cause our roadside neighbors to go nuclear. Can’t understand why the guy behind you on the highway is giving you the finger? Maybe you did something to piss him off. In Joy Ride, Lewis and Fuller Thomas do something stupid; they pretend to be a woman looking for loose sex and wind up playing a gag on the one wing nut capable of brutal murder nearby.

If ever you mock someone driving beside you, or pull a move that guarantees discomfort to other drivers, you must pay the piper. In Joy Ride, the piper drives a bigass truck. Watching Lewis, Fuller and Venna pay his price makes for a great ride.

Grade: B

Tim Chandler