A festive story

So finally HSX has spoken (or, more accurately, EDI) and, lo, it was proclaimed that the Christmas multiplier would 2.9 x (Friday – Sunday). So now we know. But really does anyone care what multiplier is going to be, apart from a bunch of egghead number freaks? If a film is going to be a hit or a flop, it’ll be a hit or a flop irrespective of what multiplier HSX applies. Does the multiplier make any difference?

Yes. Hugely. Allow me to explain.

Talking numbers

The two potential multipliers that could have been applied were 2.5 x (Friday – Monday) and 2.9 x (Friday – Sunday). HSX announced on the Support Board on Ticker Talk that its choice of multiplier would depend EDI, its source of box office data. If EDI reported on the Sunday, it would use the 2.9 multiplier, if EDI reported on the Monday, it would use the 2.5. From that moment on, my money was on a 2.9 multiplier for the simple reason that if EDI reported on the Sunday, the guys who work there would be able to wrap up all their work on Christmas Eve without having to go into work on Christmas Day. A cynical view? Perhaps, but it also proved to be fairly accurate.

There are four big holiday weekend, the tentpoles around the yearly cinematic release schedule is based; Memorial Day, Independence Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas. The thing about holiday weekends is not only that they are bigger than normal weekend, but that they tend to distort standard box office patterns. Cinema going to generally skewed predominantly towards weekends. Over holidays, we may see a second cinema-going bias, towards the holidays. For the purposes of box office analysis, the easiest two holiday weekends to deal with are Memorial Day and Thanksgiving, because they always occur on the same days of the week, so the holiday-going bias is identical from year to year. By contrast, any comparison of the upcoming Christmas weekend with say, last year, would be flawed, because last year Christmas day was a Saturday.

Telling tales

For the last time there was a directly comparable Christmas (i.e. when Christmas Day was a Monday), we have to go back to 1995. Problem is, I don’t have access to accurate figures going back that far, and I certainly don’t have any daily breakdowns. Instead, lets take a hypothetical look at our upcoming Christmas weekend, and then see how far it’s borne out by the available figures.

Friday and Saturday will follow the typical Friday and Saturday path with a big increase in the Saturday take (say, a 30% bump on the Friday numbers). The numbers will be strong, but they Thanksgiving-type blockbuster numbers. The reason? A lot of potential cinema-goers will have other things on their minds, what with Christmas shopping and all those other last minute preparations. Furthermore, the knowledge that Christmas is around the corner, plus possibly days off, means that there isn’t the urgency to see a film at the weekend. This won’t apply so much to kids and teenagers, so expect them to perform better over this first weekend. Sunday will be a bust. Christmas Eve always is. Not only do people have lots of more important things to be doing (figure a lot of them to be travelling, for starters), but also a lot of theatres close up early. The pay-off is Christmas day. It may be a Monday, but the grosses will rival the Saturday, will small drop-offs for the following Tuesday and Wednesday.

Evidence, such as it is

A fun story for all the family, I’m sure you’ll agree, but where’s the evidence to back it up? Let’s take it step by step.

I hypothesised that the box office would not be spectacular because people would have other things to do. In each of the last ten years, the weekend immediately following Christmas Day saw far higher box office takes than the weekend immediately prior to it. Very rarely is that because of new films opening. More often, it’s simply because people have more time to see the existing films.

I hypothesised that the box office would die on Christmas Eve. In 1999, December 24 did see an upsurge from the previous day, but that was because it fell on a Friday. More telling is that fact that the following Saturday the box office rose not by your typical 30% but by (gulp) 144%. In 1998, December 24 was a Thursday. You’d typically expect to see a small drop-off from the prior Wednesday, maybe 5%, maybe less. What did we get? 25.3%. in 1997, December 24 fell on a Wednesday. Again, you’d expect to see a moderate drop-off from the prior Tuesday, albeit, bigger than the drop-off from the Wednesday to the Thursday. What did we get? 42.5%. The drop-off attributable to Christmas Eve is a biggie. I’d suggest that the Sunday figures will be maybe 25% below where they would typically be because of the Christmas Eve effect. That?s on top of the drop you?d expect from Saturday to Sunday. All this implies a typical weekend multiplier of 2.9, rather than the usual 3.1. Bear that in mind when Friday?s numbers come out. Also bear in mind that since the adjust are based on Sunday estimates, this does require a degree of honesty from the studios (thanks Lucian).

I hypothesised that would equal the Saturday figures. And here I’m just hypothesising. But we know that Christmas Day will be big. Check out the grosses for Christmas day as far back as you can. It’s always big. The interesting thing is the couple of days immediately following Christmas Day. They’re also huge.

If the above hypothesis is correct (weak Sunday due to Christmas Eve, very strong Monday due to Christmas Day), using the 2.5 multiplier would result in an adjust 25% higher than using the 2.9 multiplier. As an example, if you think that CASTA can meet it current price of $99 using a 2.9 multiplier, that means would have to expect it could do $50m+ over four days.

The other side to the coin is delist. Now we all know by now that the Christmas release are all big longs post-adjust. The use of the 2.9 multiplier makes that even more overwhelmingly so, and does the fact that there are no big openers scheduled for the following weekend. By the Wednesday or the Thursday, the openers could easily have doubled their opening weekend. Any opener showing a modicum of legs could have grossed its adjust price by the end of the second weekend, with 14 days still to go.

And the moral is

The festive season is not a three day period. It?s closer to a continuous ten day period between Christmas and New Year. The studios know this. That?s why they release their movies at the beginning of the period, rather than on the weekend after Christmas Day. People have far more free time after Christmas Day than before it, so cinema-going is heavily skewed towards the post-Christmas period. However, that doesn?t count towards the multiplier.

Here?s the cliff notes version: This festive season is shaping up to have huge potential. Over the full ten days, it could be (though no guarantees) the biggest festive season ever. However, the most profitable days of the holiday fall entirely outside the adjust multiplier. The effect of this will be to artificially deflate the adjusts for the new openers and to inflate the already-bloated likely delist multipliers.

None of this is conclusive. None of this means that any particular film will automatically adjust above or below its current price. However, it is very good news for shorters, and pretty grim news for anyone holding long. If you want to continue holding long, fair enough. Just ask yourself how much faith you have in the movie.

Whatever you do, make sure you have them long post-adjust.

-Huy

With the last few of my columns on upcoming opening figures proving not-so-helpful, I decided to focus on the upcoming holiday season in a slightly different manner. Rather than talk about the historical November and December opening figures, which may or may not be a good guide in this year of extremes and surprises, I’ll discuss legs.

As Jimmy Impossible noted in his column reviewing November performances, the average legs for November releases are very small (he calculates a 2.62 average multiplier). And, as he will undoubtedly note in his upcoming column reviewing December trends, the average legs for December releases are way up.

However, looking closer, one can actually discern a pattern for legs from weekend to weekend, not just month to month. Examining the legs of November and December releases from the last three years, we will be able to tell just which of the upcoming movies will give the best chances for mega-arb Christmas presents.

[Note: all multipliers are thanks to HSJ's historical database.]

2 weeks before Thanksgiving
1998: I Still Know What You Did Last Summer : 2.18
Meet Joe Black : 2.61
1997: The Jackal : 3.05
The Man Who Knew Too Little : 2.70
1996: The Mirror Has Two Faces : 3.04
Space Jam : 2.66
Looks more or less normal – nothing much to be gleaned here.

1 week before Thanksgiving
1998: Rugrats : 2.68
Enemy of the State : 3.60
1997: Anastasia : 2.96
Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil : 3.91
Mortal Kombat 2 : 1.97
The Rainmaker : 3.69
1996: Jingle All the Way : 3.58
Star Trek 8 : 2.50
1995: Bond 17 : 2.98
The thing with this weekend is that the movies get their second weekend (which is the crucial part when it comes to legs) over the Thanksgiving holiday. This explains why, when we exclude the sequels (which usually have low multipliers), we see a lot of multipliers in the 3.5 range, even for middling movies like Jingle All the Way, Rainmaker, and Enemy of the State. (I have no idea why this doesn’t seem to apply for kid films, but there aren’t any this year so it doesn’t matter.) This would seem to bode well for Sleepy Hollow’s post-opening opportunities, especially if it turns out to be as good as it’s letting on in its ads. I listed Bond 17 above – seems that, if the trend holds, Bond 19 won’t be giving much arb either way.

Thanksgiving
1998: A Bug’s Life : 2.09
Babe 2 : 1.77
Home Fries : 1.83
Jerry Springer : 1.69
Very Bad Things : 2.00
1997: Flubber : 1.79
Alien 4 : 1.71
1996: 101 Dalmatians : 1.88
Big suckage here. Not one of the Turkey movies managed to even approach the 2.3 Thanksgiving adjust multiplier, not even the very well-received A Bug’s Life. Time to lower the multiplier, Mac? Anyhow, even if Toy Story 2 and End of Days exceed expectations, look for some large bras . er, anti-arbs.

Weekend after Thanksgiving, aka the Twilight Zone
1998: Psycho : 2.00
1997: None
1996: Daylight : 2.50
The reason most December releases have good legs is due to the huge weekday numbers. However, the weekend after Thanksgiving is too early to really take advantage of the winter breaks. Add the fact that, since it’s a bad weekend for openers, the movies are usually duds, and you get some pretty horrible multipliers. Not that this matters this year, with an empty weekend, but I just thought I’d let you know.

Two weeks before Christmas
1998: Star Trek 9 : 2.66
Jack Frost : 4.39
1997: For Richer For Poorer : 4.06
Home Alone 3 : 4.76
Scream 2 : 2.59
1996: The English Patient : 7.74
Jerry Maguire : 4.86
Mars Attacks : 3.60
The Preacher’s Wife : 5.05
What a change from the week before! Even the franchise sequels don’t fare too badly on this weekend, and if you’re quality you can really get some great legs here. Can anyone say The Green Mile? I knew you could. It seems that even dumb comedies like Deuce Bigalow can have some semblance of longevity on this weekend. Liberty Heights, Cradle Will Rock, and Ride With the Devil all hope to duplicate the staged release success of The English Patient.

‘Twas the Week before Christmas, and all through the multiplex.
1998: You’ve Got Mail : 4.89
The Prince of Egypt : 5.16
1997: Mouse Hunt : 7.55
Titanic : 6.91
Bond 18 : 4.11
1996: Beavis & Butthead : 2.92
My Fellow Americans : 7.01
One Fine Day : 5.99
Scream : 7.88
This is the mother lode weekend when it comes to legs. Stuart Little seems like the best candidate for mega-arb when you consider the success of Mouse Hunt in that department, but Anna and the King and Bicentennial Man are sure to be buys after adjust as well. Normally, small ports shouldn’t bother with trying for arb until near delist, but with the large amounts of virtually guaranteed money available after this weekend, one would be hard-pressed finding better and safer investments.

Christmas weekend
1998: Patch Adams : 3.91
Stepmom : 3.76
The Faculty : 3.03
Mighty Joe Young : 3.81
1997: American Werewolf in Paris : 2.25
Amistad : 3.68
As Good as It Gets : 4.17
Jackie Brown : 2.84
Mr. Magoo : 2.94
The Postman : 2.54
1996: The Evening Star : 3.15
Michael : 3.58
Good but not great. Note that multipliers for stinkers are back down where they belong, and that it’s usually the uplifting and/or light and frothy stuff that get the decent legs here (Amistad had legs only due to subsequent expansion); I don’t think Any Given Sunday and The Talented Mr. Ripley fall into this category, although Man on the Moon and Galaxy Quest might. There really isn’t anything to compare Next Friday to. (Maybe, if it disappoints, one could lump it in with American Werewolf in Paris as another sequel to a cult classic? OK, maybe not.)

If any time besides Christmas ever screamed genre movies, it is Halloween. When better to unleash a slew of movies to scare us senseless, then on the scariest day of the year. But is that really what studios do? It appears so this year, with the full-blown horror-fest “The House on Haunted Hill” (THOHH) being released two days before All Hallows Eve. But one horror flick, a non-horror Wes Craven movie (HEART) and a slew of limited films, do not a horror marathon make.

Do the studios know something that we don’t? Is there a track record of under performance by horror films at this time of the year? Let’s take a look.

1991

Halloween falls on a Thursday. So, more then likely, Halloween parties follow that weekend. (The previous weekend sports no hits, with House Party 2 winning the weekend with 6.03 mil.)

Five films open on November 1st, but only one is a horror film. Wes Craven’s “The People Under The Stairs”. And it brakes no box office records, winning the weekend, but with only 5.52 mil.

1992

Halloween falls on a Saturday. The biggest slag against a film opening when Halloween falls on Friday or Saturday is that no one is going to be going to the movies with all the parties happening. Sunday is a little different, but, more than likely the parties are still on Friday and Saturday night.

One film opens. “A River Runs Through It”. Maybe a horror to watch, but hardly horror. (Interesting to note that, if Halloween killed its opening, it may have “intensified” its legs. An amazing 5.60 delist multiplier, after only opening to 4.25. The ghouls and goblins who were too busy haunting on Halloween may have filtered into the theatres the next few weekends.)

1993

Here we go…Halloween falls on a Sunday. Studios are again weary. One non-horror film, “Fatal Instinct” opens to a paltry 3.5 mil.

1994

Halloween Monday. Parties are probably the weekend before.

Studios are a little braver, opening four films. Basically trash, and one big genre piece…but the wrong genre. The sci-fi extravaganza “Stargate” opens well to 15.65 mil. A nice total. Perhaps the dispersal of parties over several nights, and a normal Sunday take, helped this one.

Also of note, is the fact that it’s not like the studios don’t have the films they need. Within a month or so before or after Halloween, several horror films opened:

• -> 1991 – Freddy’s Dead: Final Nightmare
• -> 1992 – Candyman, Dr. Giggles, Hellraiser 3:Hell on Earth, Bram Stoker’s Dracula
• -> 1993 – Nightmare Before Christmas (pushing it, but doesn’t this just look like it should be released on Halloween?), Warlock: The Armageddon
• -> 1994 – Puppet Master V, Wes Craven’s New Nightmare, Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein, Interview With A Vampire
• -> 1995 – Halloween: Curse of Michael Myers (if anything should be released on Halloween…)
• -> 1996 – Thinner
• -> 1997 – I Know What You Did Last Summer
• -> 1998 – Urban Legend, Bride of Chucky, I Still Know What You Did Last Summer

1995

Halloween Tuesday. The decision when to hold the party gets a little tougher, but I’d say the weekend before. And so do the studios.

Four films open, with the horror/comedy “Vampire in Brooklyn” (by Wes Craven…you’d think he was John Carpenter the way he is so synonymous with Halloween) finishing second to “Powder”, losing 7.15 to 7.02 mil, in spite of the fact that “Brooklyn” crushed “Powder” in screen counts 2307 to 1592.

1996

Thursday again. After burning “Thinner” (5.68) the weekend of the 25th, November 1st saw almost the anti-thesis of horror released with “Romeo and Juliet”. It grossed a respectable 11.63, while the other three films fail to make 8 mil combined.

1997

Halloween falls on a Friday…interesting. and not a horror film to be seen. “Red Corner” wins the weekend with 7.4 mil.

1998

Our most recent example falls on a Saturday. “John Carpenter’s Vampires” opens to 9.11 mil on only 1793 screens. A decent per screen average of 5081, but hardly spectacular.

So, hard to say what this holds for THOHH, but prior box office doesn’t indicate anything great. Now, most people (‘cept that silly ole Grendel) think THOHH actually looks fairly scary and could do well.

Positives: scary ads; little competition from the returning film BATS.
Negatives: no star power; with Halloween on Sunday, parties will be spread over both Friday and Saturday and Sundays box office will be hurt severely.

A tough call. VMPRS definitely looked like it had more potential last year. It will be interesting to see screens for THOHH, after BATS got an obscene 2540.

Off with their hot pants!
Jimmy Impossible

The average multiplier for December is 4.48.

That sunk in yet? Good.

As I’ll look at in a little more depth below, December is easily THE month when it comes to legs. (July is a distant second with a 3.35 average.) People are on holidays, kids are out of school and in many places, snowy weather leads people to stay inside. Now the big question becomes, when do we deny the immediate short after adjust philosophy? By the looks of things, after the first weekend in December. (Which won’t make much difference to us as the December 3 weekend has only limited films. (Who really thinks SWTDN will go wide?))

So how does December stack up elsewhere? Not an exceptional month for openers, but a 9.99 average does give it a respectable fifth place finish behind powerhouses May-July and November. It may be only fifth in openers, but December climbs up to third in delist numbers (42.83) thanks to that huge multiplier. Also, December just squeezes into fourth in number of screens (one ahead of May) with 1897. Putting it behind only June-July and November. All well known for big screen counts.

With a current 32 films slated for wide and limited release between now and the year 2000, there will be plenty of variety. Let’s see if we can find what will hold up over the next month…and what might not.

(A note on some very interesting limited releases. Quite a number of the limited films are set to go wide in January. While some are low profile, keep close eyes on the likes of FANTA, MGNOL, GINTR, ANGAS, SNOWF, PITTB and LHURR.)

Best Openings

1. 1. Scream 2 33.00 (2663 screens) 1997
2. 2. Titanic 28.64 (2674 screens) 1997
3. 3. Patch Adams 25.26 (2712 screens) 1998
4. 4. Tomorrow Never Dies 25.14 (2807 screens) 1997

Other 20+ openers: Star Trek: Insurrection 22.05, Stepmom 19.14 (close enough for me), and Beavis and Butthead Do America 20.11.

So, we’ve had almost seven openers over 20mil in December in the past five years. The question becomes, can we have seven in _ONE_ year? This is what current pricing indicates. But which actually have a shot? GMILE? Has the hype and the profile. Should have no trouble. BIMAN and STLIT? Both look like they could crack 20, but will massively eat into each others audience. MANMO? There is quite a debate over this one. In one corner, the folks who think it will go nowhere since Andy Kaufman isn’t exactly a household name. In the other corner, the people who feel this is a JCARR movie, and should not be underestimated. ONANY? Might be our first casualty. GQEST? Will be close. TALNT? I sure hope not.

Worst Openings

1. 1. Wild Bill 0.99 (775 screens) 1995
2. 2. Balto 1.52 (1427 screens) 1995
3. 3. White Man’s Burden 1.73 (942 screens) 1995

We’ve essentially got two types of films opening this month. Limited and “blockbuster”. (DEUCE being the biggest question mark, and I’m not too excited by ANKNG.) As such, do we really expect any wide openings doing as poorly as above? I guess if the likes of RIDED, SWTDN or LHGTS go wide, it might happen. Keep in mind though, last year, the only film that failed to crack 10mil was Jack Frost which opened to 7.1 mil.

Best Per Screen Average

1. 1. Scream 2 12393.04 (2663 screens) 1997
2. 2. Waiting To Exhale 11,276.94 (1253 screens) 1995
3. 3. Titanic 10,710.55 (2674 screens) 1997
4. 4. As Good As It Gets 10,190.84 (1572 screens) 1997

Nothing huge stands out here different from any other months. The only thing to be aware of is how “low” the top per screen averages are. These are the only four films in the last five years to break the 10,000 barrier in December.

Worst Per Screen Average

1. 1. Balto 1065.17 (1427 screens) 1995
2. 2. Wild Bill 1277.42 (755 screens) 1995
3. 3. Cutthroat Island 1463.87 (1619 screens) 1995

Similar to worst openings, I don’t see anything terrible coming down the pipe. (Yes, even DEUCE is gaining buzz.) I just hope we don’t see a disappointment of Cutthroat Island proportions. Remember, last years lowest per screen average, for Jack Frost, was a disappointing, but not entirely devastating 3299.26. (Actually, in HSX terms it’s probably downright fantastic as we all expected this to go nowhere.)

Best Multiplier

1. 1. Scream 7.88 1996
2. 2. The English Patient 7.74 1996
3. 3. Mouse Hunt 7.55 1997
4. 4. Nell 7.48 1994

Here we go. This is what December is all about. 5 films with over a seven multiplier. Another 9 over 6. 6 more over 5. 12 each over 4 and 3. So a total of 44 over 3 and only 14 under, in the last five years. And none under 2. Of course, we can’t predict what each films multiplier will be, but we can look for films with the greatest potential.

(And you don’t necessarily have to be a kids movie, but it helps. Jack Frost (4.39), Prince of Egypt (5.16), Home Alone 3 (4.76), Mouse Hunt (7.55), Jumanji (6.17), Tom and Huck (6.42), The Jungle Book (6.48) and Richie Rich (5.45).)

GMILE seems to be a no-brainer buy after adjust. As do STLIT and BIMAN. More than likely, all of the wide releases have the potential for greater than 3 multipliers. so does that make all adjusters buys after adjust? Not necessarily, but it could be the case. Also, expect a great number of “X is arb” posts in TT as the month winds on.

Worst Multiplier

1. 1. Psycho 2.00 1998
2. 2. Trapped In Paradise 2.08 1994
3. 3. White Man’s Burden 2.09 1995 d
4. 4. Wild Bill 2.12 1995

You’ve got to try really hard not to have a good multiplier in December. (Even our good buddy Cutthroat Island had a 3.97.) A good start is to be released on the first weekend.
1994 – Trapped In Paradise 2.08
1995 – White Man’s Burden 2.09, Wild Bill 2.12
1996 – Daylight 2.50
1997 – Similar to this year, no wide releases
1998 – Psycho

So, it looks like a very nice early Christmas gift to Rob Schinder that the studios pulled by moving DEUCE from its original December 3rd opening date. ‘Course, it sucks for us, since we have no openers to play this weekend, but in the long run, things should be more profitable.

Enjoy it while you can boys and girls. The months following December are as cold at the box office as the weather will be outside for most of us.
Off with their hot pants!
Jimmy Impossible

November is upon us and we’ve survived the doomy and gloomy box office, that was for the most part August, September and October. We now look forward to the biggest opening weekends (outside of June).

Those opening weekends clock in at an impressive 14.74 mil average (June: 19.17). And ranking third behind June(2030) and July(2020) in average screen counts at 1988 doesn’t hurt either.

November does have one drawback though…legs. Two major factors here. One, when you open huge (30+ mil range) you really need to work hard to keep up that pace in the following weeks, which is not easy. Two, there are quite a glut of kids films that open big in November, and with kids still in school, the weekday grosses are severely hurt.

In fact, November ties for last with January over the last five years with an average multiplier of only 2.62. and huge openings lead Novembers average delist of 38.26 (fourth overall) to be a bit decieving. But really, the delist number is not that important. Since it is a by-product of opening weekends and multipliers, they are much bigger factors.

There are currently 22 HSX stocks set for release in November. (13 wide (though FLAWL is a question mark), 9 limited and one limited release, speculated to go wide, BOYSC.)

How has the ghost of box office past treated their departed bretheren? Let’s take a look.

Best Openings

1. 1. A Bug’s Life 46.11 (2686 screens) 1998
2. 2. 101 Dalmatians 45.07 (2794 screens) 1996
3. 3. The Waterboy 39.41 (2664 screens) 1998
4. 4. Toy Story 39.10 (2457 screens) 1995

The box office strikes back! The last few months we’ve been praying for a 20 mil opener, and now we’re inundated with 30+ openers! Besides the above, we have: Ransom (34.22), Star Trek: First Contact (30.72), Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls (37.80), Flubber (35.89), and Interview With A Vampire (36.39).
And a fine collection of 20+ openers: The Santa Clause (19.32…close enough for me), Star Trek: Generations (23.12), Starship Troopers (22.06), Alien: Resurrection (25.79), Goldeneye (26.21), Space Jam (27.53), Rugrats Movie (27.32), and Enemy of the State (20.04).

So what does all this mean? Well, look for some big openers this month…but which ones? I really like the potential for POKMN to do Rugrats type numbers. rugrats had the advantage of having some slightly older fans, but POKMN is HUGE! The fact that theatres will also be giving away new(!) cards at the movie only makes the potential box office that much bigger.

JB19. With the contiuned success of the Bond films, there seems to be no reason “The World is Not Enough” doesn’t open to 25+ mil. The big question is, can it break 30, with competition from the 20+ potential SLEPH?

ENDOF also looks to be an easy 20+ opener. Competition will be tough though. Besides the returning SLEPH, JB19 and POKMN, ENDOF will face off against the Thanksgiving giant TOYS2. (Granted, the audiences for POKMN and TOYS2 are polar opposite of ENDOF…but someone has to take the kids to see them.) Does anyone think that TOYS2 won’t at least match (and probably surpass) last years take by ABGLF? It’s been slowly climbing in price lately, but still seems like it has room to grow.

(And remember, sequels almost always outgross their predecessors on opening weekend. And if Toy Story can gross almost 40…)

Worst Openings

1. 1. Bad Moon 0.61 (825 screens) 1996
2. 2. Double Dragon 1.38 (1087 screens) 1994
3. 3. The Swan Princess 2.44 (1403 screens) 1994

November has come big openers, but also some bombs. Besides the slew of limited release, the wide openers with apperently the least potential are BCHLR, BOYSC and LITUP. (I don’t have high hopes for JNARC or ANYWH, but I doubt they’ll bomb this bad. And be very careful with LITUP. With the recent success of WOOD and TBMAN, it’s pretty obvious that we tend to underate this films. However, INDEP was one of the closes adjusters this year…so maybe not.)

Best Per Screen Average

1. 1. A Bug’s Life 17,166.79 (2686 screens) 1998
2. 2. 101 Dalmatians 16,130.99 (2794 screens) 1996
3. 3. Toy Story 15,913.75 (2457 screens) 1995

Other 5 digit per screen averages: Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls (14,253.39), Waterboy (14,793.54), Ransom (12,787.74), Star Trek: First Contact (10,924.61), Alien: resurrection (10,679.09), Flubber (13,589.55) and Interview With a Vampire (13,974.65).

Another great sign for TOYS2. And I’d expect it to have at least 500 more screens than the original.

November seems to be one of those months where the blockbusters rule the per screen averages. Wth respect to “non-blockbusters”, DOGMA may pull a nice per screen average. But opening with only a rumored 1200 screens, I don’t look for this to be a huge hit.

Worst Per Screen Average

1. 1. Bad Moon 739.40 (825 screens) 1996
2. 2. Double Dragon 1269.55 (1087 screens) 1994
3. 3. Larger Than Life 1553.64 (2433 screens) 1996

Wow. Did the screens for Larger Than Life ever live up to its name.

This is one of those hard to predict categories without screen counts, but I wouldn’t hold out a whole lot of hope for BCHLR, LITUP and BOYSC. (Again, be careful with LITUP. And ignoring the limited stocks, again, I’m not expecting ANYWH or JNARC to do much, but not entirely tank.)

Best Multiplier

1. 1. Miracle on 34th Street 4.62 1994
2. 2. The Santa Clause 4.38 1994
3. 3. Midnight In the Garden of Good and Evil 3.91 1997

Can you hear those sleigh bells jing-a-ling? Look at the gams on Santa!

Also notice the lack of our huge openers in the list above. When you open to thirty or fourty mil, it’s hard to keep up that pace.

Of our top openers, only The Waterboy (3.10) and Ransom (3.07) had good multipliers. Some had downright scarily bad ones: A Bug’s Life (2.09), Flubber (1.79), 101 Dalmatians (1.88).

The original Toy Story had a 2.49 multiplier. So, after adjust you might want to strongly consider shorting TOYS2. The biggest problem though, is that it will surely be over $100, and with the exception of commission free Saturday, you won’t want to trade this much. However, there should be a rash of sells after adjust, and very few buys or covers, so it may take a hit. (Small ports that held it, will surely sell to free up money.) ABGLF was before shorting came around, but I wish I could remember how it reacted post adjust last year. I think it will have legs, but a 40+ mil open will be a lot to live up to.

And notice three poor multipliers above all have two things in common. They are all kids movies from Disney. A major disadvantage for November is that kids are still in school, and weekday takes are going to be down.

Worst Multiplier

1. 1. Jerry Springer: Ringmaster 1.69 1998
2. 2. Double Dragon 1.70 1994
3. 3. Alien: Ressurection 1.71 1997

Other multipliers at 2 or under: Babe:Pig In The City (1.77), Home Fries (1.83), very Bad Things (2.00), May Shelley’s Frankenstein (1.92), Junior (1.97…uh oh for ENDOF, but this is not typical ASCHW fare), The Page Master (1.91), Mortal Kombat: Annihilation (1.97), Bad Moon (1.74) and the aformentioned 101 Dalmatians (1.88) and Flubber (1.79).

I noted this above, unlike summer and Christmas, kids movies tend not to have great legs becuase school hasn’t let out yet. With that in mind, I’d be very weary of not at least selling (probably shorting) POKMN and TOYS2 after adjust.
November should be a fun month at HSX. While August, September and October were very pessimesitic months as we tried to decide what would bomb the hardest, November has great box office potential. Not to mention, more than a handful of films with huge hype and great anticipation.

And next month is all about one thing: huge arb.
Off with their hot pants!
Jimmy Impossible

October is here. The air is getting crisper. The leaves are turning and falling. We have no desires to stay outdoors. Hmm? Where can we go to sit back, relax, stay warm and have a good time? I know what you’re thinking…so how about seeing a movie instead!

Well, 1999 has turned out to be quite a year at the box office. With successes like BLAIR and SIXSN. The long-awaited return of STRWR. Movie ticket sales have been booming, and it makes my job that much harder. You see, each month I usually tell you that no movie in month X has ever done X. And with almost every recent box office record known to man dropping like flies, I’m not faring too well. However, with some exceptions, most months have actually gone according to plan. (For example, with the exception of SIXSN, August was typical. And don’t even get me started on predicting every opener under 5 mil that month!

So now that I’ve justified my existence, I give you: the box office history of October! (As you probably know by know, I use that last five years for research. Partially because that is what is currently available to me…but we also get into a “pointless” discussion about looking to far back. There are now more screens available, and ticket prices are higher than ever before. Which is another reason we’ve seen so many records fall. But I digress…back to the numbers!)

The first question is: can a month that has had no movie open over 18 mil in the last five years , have three (perhaps 4) open within the first three weeks? 3KING, RANDH and FIGHT (STORY being almost priced to be the “perhaps”) will let us know the answer in the few short weeks to come.

And historically, the answer is a screaming No! October is not known for big opening weekends. In fact, on average, it ranks only ahead of April for worst opening money makers at 6.62 mil. A contributing factor to opening numbers is usually screen counts. So can we expect many screens for our October buds? Well, October sits eighth on average for screens at 1695. Not fantastic, but it is interesting to note that last year, October openers averaged 2073 screens. Like I mentioned above, there are simply just more screens out there nowadays.

And what about after opening weekend? We’ve made our opening weekend choices, and good or bad, the stocks have adjusted. Now, do we hold suit with recent tradition and short them immediately afterwards? History says…maybe. October films have a decent average multiplier of 2.83. Below the overall average of 2.96, but good enough to finish 5th overall for months. And a decent multiplier leads to a decent delist…when compared to opening at 6.62…at 20 mil. (Ok, really, that delist sucks if we expect to make much in HSX terms, and once again, only April is crappier at 17.79 mil for delist.)

Best Openings

1. 1. Antz 17.20 (2449 screens) 1998
2. 2. What Dreams May Come 15.83 (2526 screens) 1998
3. 3. I Know What You Did Last Summer 15.82 (2524 screens) 1997
4. 4. Stargate 15.65 (2033 screens) 1994

Nope, I don’t see anything over 18 mil, do you? Like I mentioned though, numbers are up since prices are up. And we’ve seen every other trend broken, so why not this one? Let’s take a look at the contenders:

• -> 3KING: With the success of DBLJP, people are more confident than ever that 3KING can do well. It currently needs to open to about 24 mil. With DBLJP opening to almost that, 3KING seems a lock. Question is, how much will DBLJP hurt 3KING?
• -> RANDH: I know it’s HFORD, but I really don’t see what this is doing here. Needs just over 20mil to make its price. Seems a little high to me. But this year…who knows?
• -> FIGHT: God is this overpriced! Is there any possible way this can make ~23 open? I know records are falling, but that would make four consecutive weekends of 20+ openers assuming 3KING and RANDH make their prices. RANDH seems to be the weakest link here, but I really don’t see FIGHT doing over 20 either.
• -> STORY: Currently priced to open about 17. How effective will the cross-programming be against FIGHT? Has teen opening potential, but I don’t look for it to join the 18+ club. BWILS is riding the SIXSN high, but the films are so different, I don’t see much carryover.

Worst Openings

1. 1. Radioland Murders 0.84 (844 screens) 1994
2. 2. Squanto: A Warrior’s Tale 1.13 (1022 screens) 1994
3. 3. Mallrats 1.15 (885 screens) 1995

So, not everything GLUCA touches turns to gold. Radioland Murders bombed terribly, even with Lucas in the mix. Of interest here also, is Mallrats. Granted, KSMIT is more popular now then ever, but these numbers aren’t terribly impressive. You have DOGMA shorted yet? (I know, that’s November. I know.) Clerks is hard to use as comparison since it only hit 96 screens at its widest, and is the epitome of a limited movie. But Chasing Amy we can compare to DOGMA. Amy only went as wide as 553 screens and grossed about 10mil. Question is, can DOGMA escape its recent distributor trouble and get a wide enough release to make some money?

Anywho, I’m babbling. What has a shot at this list? Hmm…let’s see. A ton of limited stuff. MOLLY seems to be a good candidate…if it in fact ever goes wide. I don’t think we’ll see many < 2 mil wide openers, but there looks to be many an overpriced stock, especially most of the limited movies. BEING and MONON are also flirting with never going wide, nor having mass appeal.

Best Per Screen Average

1. 1. Get Shorty 7878.41 (1612 screens) 1995
2. 2. Stargate 7697.98 (2033 screens) 1994
3. 3. Dead Presidents 7345.05 (2343 screens) 1995
4. 4. Antz 7023.27 (2449 screens) 1998

A hard one to call, but AMBEA’s wide release looks like it might walk away with this one. (Not if David and Ramon have anything to say about it though. Outside of summer, high per screen averages usually tend to have lower screen counts, but 3 of our top four here have over 2000, so potential blockbusters are keeping up their end of the bargain.

Worst Per Screen Average

1. 1. Radioland Murders 995.26 (844 screens) 1994
2. 2. Squanto: A Warrior’s Tale 1095.89 (1022 screens) 1994
3. 3. Silent Fall 1223.02 (1251 screens) 1994

*cough* Mallrats 1349.77 *cough*
Are you tired of me saying that predicting PSA is hard in advance?

Best Multiplier

1. 1. Quiz Show 5.88 1994
2. 2. Copycat 4.59 1995
3. 3. Pulp Fiction 4.10 1994

We’ve had some great multipliers in October. The above, and Shawshank Redemption 3.94, Get Shorty 3.98, Michael Collins 3.72, and The Devil’s Advocate 3.70. October films can have surprising legs. Keep your eye on the box office totals and try and spot the winners.

Worst Multiplier

1. 1. Radioland Murders 1.46 1994
2. 2. Mallrats 1.77 1995
3. 3. Puppet Master V 2.00 1994
4. 4. Gang Related 2.00 1997
5. 5. Silent Fall 2.01 1994

And on the flipside, October films can have lousy legs too. More examples: Most Wanted 2.09, Playing God 2.09, Exit To Eden 2.12, Holy Man 2.30, Soldier 2.16, and John Carpenter’s Vampires 2.15. Three of these movies are from last year, which just goes to show, even with prices up…if it’s bad…it’s bad.
And that’s October. Quite a collection of films, and high hopes from many traders if prices are any indication. I know records are made to be broken, but do we really expect them all to fall? Do we really expect four consecutive weekends of 20+ openers? Don’t forget that DBLJP, 3KING and FIGHT are targeted at the same audience (I think), so they will eat into each others profits.

So, until November…where opening grosses are up, legs are down, and we’ve got a pile of cool films to look forward to, including INSID, SLEPH, JB19, ENDOF and TOYS2.
Off with their hot pants!
Jimmy Impossible

Well, late again. Guess I’m just having a little too much fun enjoying the summer sun, as I’ve overshot another deadline. Only by a few days this time, so I think that Mr. Hub will forgive me. Anyway, the only little bit of advice that I missed on giving you was: short CHILL and OPROV. Looking back over the last five Labor Day weekends, we have only one film (The Prophecy, 1995) that grossed over 7 mil. Now, with the record breaking year we’ve had at the box office, this might not have meant anything, but it seemed to be a good indicator. People are more interested in enjoying the last long weekend of summer, than in going to movies. (I also heard that it is a weekend to catch some movies that you’ve missed, and that Labor Day is just a dumping ground for films that the studio has no hope for.)

And so, we enter September. A month blocked with HSX represented films (25 at last count) but over half of which (15) are limited and will be floating around, annoyingly overpriced for months on end. So, the question remains: how will the 10 films opening “wide” fare? Well, with the exception of Rush Hour’s explosion at the box office last year, September hasn’t exactly been the month for huge openings. (Rush Hour opened to 33 mil last year, and shocked just about everyone, since no film the past five Septembers has even opened to 20 mil.) And it would seem that the market recognizes this, as no film is currently priced to open over 20.

How about a little history of September box office on average then? Well, historically, September openers have averaged about 7.10 mil. Not huge by any means. In fact, that places it 8th overall looking at the other months average openings. Part of this may be that it is 9th in average number of screens at 1653. September is tied for 9th (with February) with an average 2.75 multiplier. We’re obviously not in the summer anymore. And so, small openings, coupled with a below average multiplier equals low delist numbers. It’s 21.29 average delist places September in 8th overall.

So, it looks like we won’t be in for any huge openings.or will we? Hard to say. I wasn’t writing this time last year, so I don’t know how RUSHH was expected to do (I know it was about $40 underpriced), but I’d be willing to bet that a 33 mil opening was never dreamed of. With that, let’s see if we can find another hidden gem.

Best Openings

1. 1. Rush Hour 33.00 (2638 screens) 1998
2. 2. First Wives Club 18.91 (1922 screens) 1996
3. 3. In and Out 15.02 (1992 screens) 1997

Does anything have a chance to do RUSHH type numbers? Current pricing would indicate that HSXers believe that LVGAM will come the closest. ~$53 only puts it on par with First Wives Club numbers. Can it do that? I’m skeptical. I think it will do well, but I don’t know about it making or breaking 20 mil. Just looks like a romance that just happens to have baseball in it. (BTW, Field of Dreams opened to a meager 5.7 mil, but it was only on 1100 screens.) My most likely scenerio for LVGAM? About 15-16 open and above average legs.

Some people are hedging their bets on Blue Streak (BSTRK). This would seem a natural fit for a Rush Hour comparison, but, I don’t know how much of a draw MLAWR is. The fact that both of these top contenders both open on the same weekend won’t help them much either. JAKOB and DBLJP are liked by traders as well, each priced to open to about 15 mil. This seems right for DBLJP, but low to me for JAKOB. I should hold off on a prediction though until I actually see some ads for this one, but if they can pull off a PATCH type feel, they might have a surprise hit on their hands.

And with the success of BLAIR, HHILL and SIXSN.can we count out STIGM and STIRE? Yes, I think we can. (Actually, I’m starting to wonder about STIGM. Though it looks run-of-the-mill to me and has no bankable stars.people are talking about it.)

Worst Openings

1. 1. A Good Man In Africa 1.14 (794 screens) 1994
2. 2. Moonlight and Valentino 1.25 (667 screens)1995
3. 3. The Scout 1.46 (1585 screens) 1994
4. 4. Magic in the Water 1.46 (0.30 pre) (810 screens) 1995

Are you scratching your head wondering what either of these films are? Join the club. If any of the wide films fall into the category, it may be Breakfast of Champions. Yes, it stars Bruce Willis, but there are some doubts about how wide it will go, and if it will appeal to the mainstream audience. And I’ll bet that this time next year, I’ll be looking at MMFRD and checking to see if it managed to avoid this list.

Best Per Screen Average

1. 1. Rush Hour 12509.48 (2638 screens) 1998
2. 2. First Wives Club 9838.71 (1922 screens) 1996
3. 3. Soul Food 8364.45 (1339 screens) 1997

How is one to predict what movie will have a high per screen average? Especially without screens to base it on. Actually, we could see some of our limited stocks show up in this category. AMBEA seems a natural fit. It opens limited on the 15th, goes wide on October 1st and has been getting lots of buzz.

Oh, and quickly glance at Rush Hour’s numbers. Man does that look like a summer release.

Worst Per Screen Average

1. 1. The Scout 921.14 (1585 screens) 1994
2. 2. A Good Man in Africa 1435.77 (794 screens) 1994
3. 3. The Tie That Binds 1475.04 (1783 screens) 1995

Another case of tough predictions. Again, possibly some release stocks might creep in here. And BREAK seems like a candidate again. Something important to note here though. Check out the number of screens for The Scout and The Tie That Binds. Not too shabby. Just make note that decent screen counts do not a stellar box office make. And, *cough* MMFRD *cough*. (Seems like I really have no hope for this stock, hey?) If STIGM and STIRE fall to the wraith of SIXSN, they quite possibly might end up here as well.

Best Multiplier

1. 1. L.A. Confidential 4.41 1997
2. 2. The River Wild 4.27 1994
3. 3. Seven 4.14 1995

The River Wild.hmm.can Kevin Bacon do it again with STIRE? I’m not counting on it, but who knows. LVGAM seems a lock for this one. And if JAKOB finds its audience, it might have decent legs as well. Notice anything missing from the above list though? RUSHH. Now, it did have a good 2.98 multiplier, and a 33 mil open is hard to keep up with, but it just goes to show that you don’t need to open big to catch on. The success of L.A. Confidential would seem to indicate a similar pattern of platform launch and success for AMBEA, but we really won’t see the fruits of this untill October.

Worst Multiplier

1. 1. Magic In The Water 1.52 1995
2. 2. Steal Big, Steal Little 1.76 1995
3. 3. Knock Off 1.79 1998

Don’t expect much out of CHILL and OPROV if Knock Off is any indication. STIGM and STIRE might not have much in the way of legs if audiences don’t receive them well, or if they can’t escape the monster that is SIXSN.

Welcome to fall boys and girls, where we don’t have a potential 20-30+ mil opener every weekend. Now go out and short LSTNK for the love of the game!

Off with their hot pants!
Jimmy Impossible

Well, as I sat back on the deck atop our lovely building with a Margarita in one hand and “Wizards and Glass” in the other (which I’ve been trying to read for like, two years) I realized that, unfortunately, summer was coming to a close. Not only did this mean colder weather, but the forecast for the movie market was growing grimmer as well. How many 20mil plus openings would we see in the coming months? Probably not many. With its big openings and great legs, summer has sure spoiled us. After this, it’s back to grinding out what the fall openers are worth. (Or perhaps we can start speculating about next summer. MISS2. MREPO. TOMBR. MIERN. Looks like it might be fun again next year!)

As I said, box office is on the downswing. HHILL surprised everyone with its performance last weekend, and it could be the last of the summer blockbusters. (RBRID should do well, but not to the tune of a 30mil open.) In fact, over the last five years, openers have averaged a measly 7.4 mil. The first single digit opening average since April (5.84). Multipliers are down (2.87), and the two coupled together leads to lower delist numbers (22.46, less than half that of July and only a third of June). And of course, it’s hard to open big as your screens drop (1736 average).

With that, let’s see if anything has a chance of surviving in this end of summer market.

Best Openings

1. 1. Clear And Present Danger 28.81 (2378 screens) 1994
2. 2. Mortal Kombat 23.28 (2421 screens) 1995
3. 3. Spawn 21.21 (2536 screens) 1997

And that’s it for 20mil openers. Conspiracy Theory comes close with a 19.31mil open. In fact, only three other movies opened over 15 mil. Snake Eyes (16.31), Halloween:H20 (16.19, 8.56pre) and Blade (17.07). (Dangerous Minds is close with a 14.93 open.) One good sign perhaps is that these three movies all opened last year. And with box office records falling left and right this year, maybe we might see some surprises.

It’s too bad that things are so crowded on August 6th weekend. (August 27th is crowded too, but does anyone really care?) Even without BLAIR climbing to about 1800 screens, we have IRONG, SIXSN, MYSMN and TCRWN all going wide. IRONG is kinda off on its own though. I’d expect a decent open in the 10-12 mil range and good legs. Unfortunately, the others will more than likely cut into each others profits, bringing what could be great openings (if alone) down to average ones. TCRWN might emerge the winner. MYSMN is hit or miss, but could surprise. Although I think SIXSN looks OK, I get the feeling it might be the one left out in the cold. Horror buffs will be at BLAIR.

Worst Openings

1. 1. Steel 0.87 (1260 screens) 1997
2. 2. Free Willy 3 0.99 (1258 screens)1997
3. 3. Masterminds 1.01 (1186 screens) 1997

Are we the least bit surprised that Steel tops this list? And how many times are they gonna free that damn whale? Anyway, with 27 films opening with less than 4mil, things are looking drearier and drearier for August.

Hard to predict what will completely crap out. If I had to pick some overpriced stocks…hmm…ASTRO, THRWR and possibly MCKYB. I know, Obiah loves this stock, but it seems overpriced to me at ~$38. If VRYTU stays limited, it should be a major short. (Also, if DUDDO doesn’t find its audience it could be in big trouble.)

Best Per Screen Average

1. 1. Dangerous Minds 11075.67 (1348 screens) 1995
2. 2. Mortal Kombat 9615.86 (2421 screens) 1995
3. 3. Spawn 8363.56 (2536 screens) 1997

I think Spawn probably surprised some people with its good opening. The success of Spawn, Blade and Mortal Kombat look to be good signs for MYSMN. One problem though, these were all straight forward action fantasies, while MYSMN is a comedy that happens to be about superheroes. Again, I don’t think we can count any of the 6th’s openers out, they’ll just have heavy competition. I think it was Obiah (lots o’ mentions in this column bud) who said that screen counts may be the determining factor in who wins and who loses. I plan on being as close to my portfolio as possible when screen counts come out, just in case. (Oh, and the winner of this category seems to be a lock: BLAIR. Though not officially opening in August, it will get its highest screen counts during this month.)

Worst Per Screen Average

1. 1. Steel 690.48 (1260 screens) 1997
2. 2. Free Willy 3 786.96 (1258 screens) 1997
3. 3. Masterminds 851.60 (1186 screens) 1997

Well, ‘97 had its share of bombs hey? Hard to say what will be in this bunch. I’m sure we’ll have some low openers (5mil or less) but this doesn’t necessarily mean low PSA. My list of possible less than 5 mil opens are: DICK, BROKD, DROCK, INDEP, DGFLN, MUSE, UNIS2 and VRYTU.

Best Multiplier

1. 1. Babe 4.21 1995
2. 2. Tin Cup 4.15 1996
3. 3. Jack 4.09 1996

As far as multipliers go, summer is over and we probably won’t see great legs again until December. However, kids movies will keep raking it in until about September, so look for IRONG and INSPC (and possibly DUDDO, though it really opens too late to take advantage) to do good business throughout the month. Look for decent legs as well from RBRID and possibly one of our terrible trio from the 6th. But which one?

Worst Multiplier

1. 1. The Stupids 1.52 1996
2. 2. The Crow: City Of Angels 1.68 1996
3. 3. Kull The Conqueror 1.74 1997
4. 4. Steel 1.75 1997

Movies with built in fan bases such as sequels or adaptations of comics or TV shows, are usually good candidates for bad legs (ala #’s 2-4 here). Sometimes a movie is just plain bad (ala #1).

Hm, any candidates here? MYSMN? Possibly, but not likely. It might not make its adjust multiplier, but should be in the high 2’s. DUDDO? Could bomb, but is probably in the same boat as MYSMN. UNIS2? This would be my bet.

And with that the summer has come to a close. This is my first experience playing summer stocks, and I had a lot of fun. Next up, the downward slide in openings, delists, multipliers and screens continues in September.

Off with their hot pants!
Jimmy Impossible

It began as every other day at the office. I arrived early. Stole Txredd’s parking spot and bought her a couple of shares of WLWST to keep my slim YTD lead intact. I checked the logs to see if Aaron had returned from his trip to Dropped Off The Face Of The Earth, Illinois. Still no sign of him. I wondered would I need to mount another expedition?

I picked up my mail and headed to my office. As I arrived, a client called and I quickly got to work telling him to short SUPER, Y2K and BRAKS since they would delist very, very soon.

“And then I sez to Mabel, I sez…”

BANG! BANG!

“Gotta go, someone’s at the door. Later.” I hung up the phone. “Come in.” I sat back, fully expecting a certain red head to come in to give me my daily lecture about “personal spaces”. Much to my surprise, in stormed our new HR manager.

“Impossible!!!!”

I sat upright in my chair. This was gonna be bad.

Mr. Hub slammed his hands, palms down, on my desk. His cigar tightly bunched in the corner of his mouth. “Jimmy!!” A puff of smoke blew in my face. I decided it was not a good time to point out the no smoking sign hanging in my window.

“I know you’re given a lot of slack around here since you put in a lot of work on site tools, but I can’t have you missing deadlines! You’re a week late with your box office history column! It’s already July for Chrissake!”

I swallowed hard. “Yes sir. I’ll get to it right away sir.”

He raised his right hand, extending the index finger towards me. “See to it that you do! If I leave here today without your column having passed through my hands, something is gonna hit the fan!”

He turned and headed out of the room. Stopping before he reached the door, he turned back towards me and said, “And what is with all the cans of Darth Maul Mountain Dew?!?”

“I’m hiding them from James,” I smiled back. He just shook his head and walked out, muttering something about greasy fan boys.

So after a quick call to my pals at the HSJ to wrangle up some numbers, I finally got to work.

At long last: July.

When it comes to HSX, two of the most important times in a stocks life are opening weekend and the three weeks before delist. It could be that we’ve passed summers peak with lots of huge June openings and July numbers could be much lower. This would stick with recent trends as July openers have only averaged 13.61 mil, down almost 6 mil on average from the highest grossing month of June.

We also see a major drop in delist numbers from June to July (down to 48.54 from 61.71) and screen counts (from 2303 to 2020). However, we do see one increase. An important one that affects our second point above. The average multiplier for July is 3.35, up from 3.14 for June. (And second only to December’s 4.48) It’s a great month for legs. Some interesting things to note are that in 1995, no movie released in July had a multiplier less than three and in the last five years, no movie has had a multiplier less than 2.

If all holds true on HSX, you should see a nice drop in price after adjust. Hence you may want to use the following strategy: short after adjust and when it falls as far as you think it will go, buy long and hold on for the ride.

So let’s have a look at some numbers.

Best Openings

1. 1. Independence Day 84.98 (11.12 prev) (2882 screens) 1996
2. 2. Men In Black 51.07 (33.06 prev) (3020 screens) 1997
3. 3. Air Force One 37.13 (2919 screens) 1997
4. 4. Armageddon 36.09 (18.11 prev) (3127 screens) 1998

If I missed the boat on anything by being late, it was this one. However, my advice may have come back to haunt me. Have you heard this before: “Will Smith plus July 4th weekend equals big bucks”? Well, you might not hear it much anymore. OK, making 50 mil over 5 days or so is nothing to sneeze at, but it’s hardly what was expected after the opening weekends of ID4 and Men In Black. Most people are thinking that WLWST will be Will Smith’s “Last Action Hero”. But don’t count him out yet, he’s got a lot of movies left in him to do.
I really don’t see anything else opening over 30 mil, with the possible exception of EYESW. If enough people buy into the hype and enough want to see Cruise and Kidman naked, it could open well.

Worst Openings

1. 1. Black Beauty 1.29 (1312 screens) 1994
2. 2. Wild America 1.81 (1.07 prev) (1812 screens) 1997
3. 3. Joe’s Apartment 1.85 (1512 screens) 1996

Well, nothing is really a screaming short at this point as far as I can tell. BLAIR tends to get overpriced for a movie that may never go wide enough to adjust. The Wood (WOOD) might be another. It seems to have some buzz in the market, but looks to have a small screen count and limited audience written all over it to me.
And with so many movies currently priced to have 20 mil+ openings (AMPIE, EYESW, HHILL, INSPC, DBSEA, MYSMN, RBRID) something will probably give, leaving a few good shorts to be had.

Best Per Screen Average

1. 1. Independence Day 29486.47 (2882 screens) 1996
2. 2. Men In Black 16910.60 (3020 screens) 1997
3. 3. Forrest Gump 15329.15 (1595 screens) 1994

We can’t really base a whole lot on this statistic, but it’s nice to look at hey? Anyway, this would be another “looks good for WLWST” thing, which wouldn’t have panned out. Quite often, limited stocks tend to have big per screen averages. With this in mind, we immediately think of BLAIR. I want to see BLAIR. I’ve only seen the teaser trailer, but it sounds good and has incredible buzz. It did great with the whole film festival crowd, but I have two fears. One, how wide will it actually go? 600 screens or less? In fact, BLAIR may have a much nicer delist if it doesn’t go wide. If it grabs, say, 700 screens, it would delist three weeks after that, hardly accumulating what it would after a decent 12 week or so run. And second, has John Q. Public even heard of this movie? Of course, all us film buffs have, but what about average Joe America who just checks the paper and decides some night what movie to go to. Do you really think that BLAIR will get a huge marketing push? I really think that BLAIR is about ten bucks overpriced. It may delist at its current price, but that’s a long ways away, most likely.

Worst Per Screen Average

1. 1. Black Beauty 983.23 (1312 screens) 1994
2. 2. Joe’s Apartment 1223.54 (1512 screens) 1996
3. 3. Baseketball 1622.05 (1905 screens) 1998

Well, if we based anything on Baseketball, we would have avoided SOUTH like the plague. (Which would have been nice since it adjusted down.) But, of course, SOUTH had much more of a built in audience. It will be interesting to see if it has any legs though.
Again, it’s very hard to say what may have a bad per screen average. In contrast to what I said above, it may actually be one of the limited films. (I’m sure this will start some arguments but…) If any of the big releases are to struggle, they may be MYSMN, PLACD, DBSEA (if they don’t find their audience) or ARLIN.

Best Multiplier

1. 1. Forrest Gump 5.42 1994
2. 2. There’s Something About Mary 5.28 1998
3. 3. Ever After 4.96 1998

Some nice looking multipliers up there. This is the month for legs as we noted above. Other great July legs go to: Saving Private Ryan (4.12), The Parent Trap (4.59), A Time To Kill (4.57), George Of The Jungle (4.59) and Angels In The Outfield (4.18).
It’s summer, so everything has the potential to have good legs (and more than likely a multiplier better than 3). Some that I’ll be picking up after the “adjust-dip tango” are MUPPE, INSPC, and RBRID (and more than likely AMPIE and MYSMN). Like I said, keep your eye on all the releases. They don’t call this “big ARB season” for nothing.

Worst Multiplier

1. 1. Operation Condor 2.13 1997
2. 2. North 2.16 1994
3. 3. Baseketball 2.22 1998

In this month of great multipliers, it’s interesting to note that 2.13 is the lowest. That’s a tad high, for being the worst multiplier. A lot of times a movie will have a poor multiplier if it is “front-loaded” (i.e. its main audience all go to see it on opening weekend.) For example, SOUTH, X-Files, the Star Trek franchise, and most sequels. It doesn’t look like we have any of those cases here. (Well, maybe MUPPE and INSPC, but since they are kid movies, I’m not to worried about the multiplier.) Actually, EYESW might fall into this group if its core audience all attend on opening weekend, and it has weak word of mouth. I doubt it will do much below its multiplier, if at all. DBSEA, PLACD and MYSMN could fade on bad word or mouth as well, but again, I doubt it.

And so…”AHHH!” the chain to my desk has been released and I can get back to loafing, um, I mean working. Next month we’ll wind down the summer with the likes of Blade, Babe, Mortal Kombat, and G.I. Jane.

Off with their hot pants!
Jimmy Impossible

Welcome to June. Now that the hubbub of a certain space odyssey has begun to die down, we jump head first into the heart of the summer season. When you try and make predictions this month remember that over the last five years, June movies have averaged the highest grossing opening weekends. By a land slide. June’s 19.17 average for opening weekends clearly distances November’s 14.74 average and July’s average of 13.61. And to make those large opening weekends, you usually need some strong screen counts. And on average, June is chock full of high screen counts. At an average of 2303 screens for the month, June wins another category, beating out July (2020 average) and November (1988 average). Going hand in hand with large opening weekends are large delists. A spectacular 61.71 average easily leads July (48.54), December (42.83) and November (38.26).

And summer means school is out and film grosses are on the rise. June movies have above average legs. A 3.14 multiplier for the month may only rank third overall to July’s 3.35 and December’s 4.48, but it beats the 5-year average of 2.96.

So add the following numbers to your arsenal and best of luck in the post STRWR market.

Best Openings

1. 1. Batman Forever 52.78 (2842 screens) 1995
2. 2. Batman And Robin 42.87 (2934 screens) 1997
3. 3. Lion King 40.89 (2552 screens) 1994

Where does he get those wonderful box office figures? Joel Schumacher may have killed the Batman franchise, but not before it could secure some strong opening weekend numbers. There’s no Bat-flick this year, but we could see some huge openings. Apollo 13 (30.97), The Truman Show (31.54), The X-Files (30.14) and Dr. Dolittle (29.01) lend more credibility to the profitability of June. 18 films have had opening weekends greater than 20 mil in the past five years.
Possibly affected stocks: AUST2, TRZAN, BDADY, WLWST

Worst Openings

1. 1. The Princess And The Goblin 0.45 (795 screens) 1994
2. 2. Fluke 1.44 (1200 screens)1995
3. 3. Buddy 3.50 (2113 screens) 1997

Two points to be made here: 1. Even in June, kids movies are not guaranteed gold. 2. As much as we love them, never, ever make a movie about simians. (Ok, Congo opened well at 24.64…but Buddy and Ed (1.91 mil opening in March of ‘96) prove my point.
Possibly affected stocks: Nothing really falls directly in this category, but look for DSRTB, IDEAL and possibly PLACD to get lost in the summer shuffle.

Best Per Screen Average

1. 1. Batman Forever 18571.43 (2842 screens) 1995
2. 2. Apollo 13 17502.27 (2198 screens) 1995
3. 3. Lion King 16022.73 (2552 screens) 1994

Similar to last month, blockbusters dominate the per screen average. Other high per screen averages include Batman And Robin (14611.45), The Truman Show (13624.19) and The Nutty Professor (12014.18).
Possibly affected stocks: See the above list for the best openings. There’s a reason all these stocks are above $70. People are expecting big things from them.

Worst Per Screen Average

1. 1. The Princess And The Goblin 566.04 (795 screens) 1994
2. 2. Fluke 1200 (1200 screens) 1995 (double 1200 is not a typo)
3. 3. Buddy 1656.41 (2113 screens) 1997

What else can I say…no monkeys. (Seriously, it’s hard to base anything on past per screen average.)

Best Multiplier

1. 1. Speed 5.06 1994
2. 2. The Bridges Of Madison County 4.46 1995
3. 3. Lion King 4.17 1994

It’s summer, which means schools out and plenty of movies have great legs. Also of note are The Rock (3.92), Dr. Dolittle (3.63), The Nutty Professor (3.69), My Best Friends Wedding (3.85) and Face/Off (3.69). (Perhaps Eddie Murphy should have lobbied to get Bowfinger (BWFNG) moved to June since it treats him so well.) This bodes well for a great percentage of June movies.
Of real note however is Tarzan (TRZAN). Besides The Lion King, Mulan (4.04), Hercules (3.58), Pocahontas (3.43) and The Hunchback Of Notre Dame (3.66) all have good to great multipliers. Kids love Disney and TRZAN looks to have the same, if not more potential than any of the other recent animated features.
(I also think the multiplier for My Best Friends Wedding gives an indication of possibly good legs for Notting Hill (NHILL) which opens the last weekend of May.

Worst Multiplier

1. 1. Judge Dredd 1.89 1995
2. 2. Mighty Morphin Power Rangers 1.98 1995
3. 3. The Princess And The Goblin 2.13 1994

And who could forget Batman And Robin’s paltry 2.3 multiplier. Again, it’s hard to predict anything based on past numbers in some cases. South Park (SOUTH) looks like a possible “big opening, below average legs” kinda flick. And if Lake Placid (PLACD) doesn’t find a cult-ish niche (ala Anaconda) it could drop like a stone after it opens.

And that’s it for June. And get ready for some legs…July is up next and its average multiplier is second only to December at 3.35.

Off with their hot pants!
Jimmy Impossible